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Game Recap
UTA3
CBJ2
UTA beat CBJ 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 2.82. UTA outshot CBJ 33 to 22. D. Guenther had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. C. Ingram stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:51CBJJ. Danforth0.32 xG
- 2nd 2:06UTAL. Crouse0.20 xG
- 2nd 12:33UTAO. Maatta0.01 xG
- 2nd 19:21CBJI. ProvorovSH0.02 xG
- OT 4:27UTAD. Guenther0.44 xG
Team Stats
UTACBJ
33Shots on goal22
3.72Expected goals2.82
79Shot attempts53
245v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play0/2
20Hits19
14Blocked shots16
9Penalty minutes11
19Giveaways22
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 3.72 xGCBJ 2.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 5:21 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:05 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:34 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:12 | 1:11 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:05 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 5:54 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 4:44 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 | 4:03 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:10 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:03 | 1:09 |
| O. Maatta | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 | 15:04 | 0:31 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:37 | 5:24 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:05 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:21 | 0:06 |
| N. DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 64:17 | Win |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Danforth | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:27 | 3:21 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 3:03 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 3:08 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 3:05 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:30 | 0:56 |
| L. Del Bel Belluz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:42 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:50 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 29:16 | 3:09 |
| I. Provorov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 28:56 | 0:51 |
| J. Harris | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:55 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 64:27 | OT loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.1, CBJ 2.9 | UTA 3, CBJ 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 28.9, CBJ 28.6 | UTA 33, CBJ 22 |
| Win chance | UTA 52% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.5 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 3.0 | 5 | 1.16 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 6 | 0.88 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.6 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.5 | 5 | 0.71 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 2.2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 5 | 0.67 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Danforth | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ L. Belluz | 1.3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. DeSimone | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Harris | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.