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Game Recap
UTA4
FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
CBJ1

UTA beat CBJ 4-1, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 2.58. UTA outshot CBJ 31 to 18. D. Guenther led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Schmaltz had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Cossa stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA2024
CBJ0101
  1. 1st 11:55UTAM. SergachevPP0.06 xG
  2. 1st 16:31UTAN. Schmaltz0.04 xG
  3. 2nd 1:30CBJK. Johnson0.16 xG
  4. 3rd 5:59UTAD. GuentherPP0.08 xG
  5. 3rd 14:13UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

UTACBJ
31Shots on goal18
2.63Expected goals2.58
71Shot attempts51
225v5 shots on goal16
3/4Power play0/2
26Hits21
16Blocked shots23
4Penalty minutes8
24Giveaways23
5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.63 xGCBJ 2.58 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdUTA goal, 11:55UTA goal, 16:31CBJ goal, 1:30UTA goal, 5:59UTA goal, 14:13

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA30 on goal, 4 scored
CBJ19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. GuentherRW1235100016:513:54
N. SchmaltzC2028010017:393:53
C. KellerRW0222020017:043:34
L. CooleyC0221000016:483:52
V. TrocheckC0000220017:270:22
J. McBainC0000620014:340:00
K. StenlundC0002110014:070:00
A. LeeLW0001300013:470:24
B. HaytonC0000100013:470:00
L. CrouseLW0002110013:370:00
M. CarconeLW0003200013:030:42
D. ButLW0000410011:110:23
M. SergachevD112401-1222:013:49
J. MarinoD011000+1220:270:27
N. SchmidtD000000+1021:330:00
M. WeegarD000124-1020:210:00
D. SimashevD0000300016:400:00
A. PeekeD0002010015:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Cossa18171.94460:00Win
K. Vejmelka000–0:00

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. KniesLW011111+1017:442:46
K. JohnsonC101501+1017:142:42
A. FantilliC000122+1020:312:44
S. MonahanC000110-1016:531:17
V. NichushkinRW000202-1016:471:15
C. CoyleC0000100015:242:19
M. OlivierRW0001400015:230:00
C. SillingerC0002000013:210:00
D. VoronkovLW000121-1212:501:41
C. GarlandRW0000000012:431:15
D. HeinenLW0000000011:250:00
R. LombergLW000230009:060:00
Z. WerenskiD0001050031:432:57
D. MateychukD0001030428:071:03
E. GudbransonD000033-1016:350:01
C. SoucyD0000310016:280:00
E. AndraeD000003+1213:430:00
J. ChristiansenD000011009:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Greaves31274.87160:00Loss
C. Talbot000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1V. Trocheck15:56N. Schmaltz12:32C. Keller13:30
Line 2B. Hayton13:29J. McBain13:37L. Crouse12:01
Line 3K. Stenlund12:31M. Carcone12:21D. But10:48
Line 4A. Lee13:23D. Guenther12:57L. Cooley11:47
Pair 1N. Schmidt19:06J. Marino20:00
Pair 2M. Weegar18:08M. Sergachev17:17
Pair 3A. Peeke13:18D. Simashev15:59

CBJ

Line 1A. Fantilli17:00M. Knies14:58K. Johnson14:32
Line 2S. Monahan14:14V. Nichushkin15:04C. Garland11:28
Line 3M. Olivier13:33C. Sillinger13:04C. Coyle10:38
Line 4D. Heinen10:05R. Lomberg9:06D. Voronkov11:09
Pair 1Z. Werenski25:47D. Mateychuk26:30
Pair 2C. Soucy14:53E. Andrae13:43
Pair 3E. Gudbranson13:50J. Christiansen9:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 23 overs hit (35%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CBJ Z. Werenski3.5+125-1351Under
UTA C. Keller2.5+100-1102Under
UTA D. Guenther2.5-160+1305Over
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+136-1708Over
UTA A. Lee1.5-160+1251Under
UTA B. Hayton1.5-105-1250Under
CBJ C. Coyle1.5-110-1140Under
CBJ C. Garland1.5+110-1300Under
CBJ C. Sillinger1.5+115-1352Over
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.5+100-1251Under
CBJ D. Voronkov1.5-115-1151Under
UTA J. McBain1.5+150-2050Under
CBJ K. Johnson1.5-135+1055Over
UTA L. Cooley1.5-155+1301Under
UTA L. Crouse1.5-105-1302Over
CBJ M. Olivier1.5+110-1351Under
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-140+1304Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5-115-1101Under
CBJ S. Monahan1.5-125-1051Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.5-160+1352Over
UTA V. Trocheck1.5-120-1150Under
CBJ D. Heinen0.5-145+1050Under
CBJ R. Lomberg0.5-110-1252Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.1, CBJ 3.2UTA 4, CBJ 1
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalUTA 26.5, CBJ 28.3UTA 31, CBJ 18
Win chanceCBJ 52%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CBJ Z. Werenski3.410.97018%0
UTA D. Guenther3.150.87333%1
UTA C. Keller2.921.04229%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.580.85228%2
CBJ A. Fantilli2.510.73028%0
UTA A. Lee2.210.47021%0
UTA L. Cooley2.110.77229%0
UTA L. Crouse2.020.55025%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.940.72214%1
UTA M. Carcone1.830.41019%0
CBJ C. Coyle1.800.67022%0
UTA M. Weegar1.810.43011%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.700.66021%0
CBJ V. Nichushkin1.720.55023%0
CBJ M. Knies1.610.70125%0
CBJ C. Sillinger1.620.38013%0
CBJ S. Monahan1.510.54019%0
UTA B. Hayton1.500.34013%0
CBJ C. Garland1.400.38015%0
CBJ M. Olivier1.310.34015%0
UTA D. But1.300.25012%0
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.310.39010%0
CBJ K. Johnson1.250.38114%1
UTA N. Schmidt1.100.3008%0
CBJ D. Voronkov1.110.32014%0
UTA J. McBain1.100.27010%0
UTA A. Peeke1.020.2005%0
CBJ D. Heinen1.000.32014%0
CBJ E. Gudbranson1.000.1904%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.920.25011%0
CBJ R. Lomberg0.920.1708%0
UTA D. Simashev0.900.1003%0
CBJ C. Soucy0.900.1705%0
UTA J. Marino0.800.3816%0
CBJ E. Andrae0.600.1602%0
CBJ J. Christiansen0.500.0801%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.