Game Recap: UTA 1, CGY 4, April 12, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA1

FinalSun, Apr 12, 2026Every game that night

CGY4

CGY beat UTA 4-1, with the chances close: 2.99 expected goals to 2.41. B. Pachal led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Durzi had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Wolf stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	0	1	1
CGY	2	0	2	4

1st 7:06CGYM. Coronato0.04 xG
1st 8:27CGYC. Zary0.04 xG
3rd 6:01CGYM. Backlund0.40 xG
3rd 9:10CGYB. Pachal0.02 xG
3rd 11:20UTAL. Crouse0.04 xG

Team Stats

UTACGY

29Shots on goal23

2.41Expected goals2.99

63Shot attempts46

225v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/4

20Hits7

13Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways18

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.41 xGCGY 2.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA28 on goal, 1 scored

CGY22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	4	19:21	5:00
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:55	1:19
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:49	4:38
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:17	5:02
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	15:38	4:08
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:07	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:01	0:58
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:01	1:59
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:03	0:48
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	11:21	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	10:29	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	9:07	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	0	0	21:23	1:28
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:25	4:29
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:06	0:08
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:53	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	-2	0	16:50	0:03
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	23	19	4	.826	59:46	Loss
M. Villalta	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	20:25	5:07
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:42	0:34
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	17:28	5:18
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	16:50	4:40
C. Zary	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:45	3:10
A. Suniev	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:27	2:32
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:20	0:08
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:45	5:04
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:08	2:51
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	13:39	2:22
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	12:13	0:00
T. Gross	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	9:15	0:01
B. Pachal	D	1	2	3	1	1	1	+2	0	14:47	0:03
Z. Parekh	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	23:49	5:00
O. Määttä	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	23:08	0:16
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	22:41	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	0	0	6	+1	0	20:07	2:54
A. Wiebe	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	28	1	.966	59:59	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz13:10C. Keller14:06L. Crouse13:22

Line 2A. Kerfoot11:08J. Peterka11:55M. Carcone11:06

Line 3L. O'Brien10:15K. Stenlund11:19B. Tanev8:53

Line 4K. Yamamoto11:18L. Cooley9:51D. Guenther10:29

Pair 1I. Cole14:57S. Durzi16:35

Pair 2M. Weegar16:44M. Sergachev13:52

Pair 3D. Simashev13:17N. Schmidt15:43

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund14:36J. Farabee13:48B. Coleman13:07

Line 2V. Olofsson11:35M. Frost11:59M. Coronato11:54

Line 3A. Klapka11:50C. Zary11:12R. Strome10:54

Line 4Y. Sharangovich8:40A. Suniev8:54T. Gross8:18

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud18:09Z. Parekh18:43

Pair 2O. Määttä19:28H. Brzustewicz15:39

Pair 3B. Pachal11:34A. Wiebe7:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMacKenzie Weegar UTA Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.3, CGY 2.9	UTA 1, CGY 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	UTA 28.5, CGY 27.0	UTA 29, CGY 23
Win chance	UTA 57%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	1	0.87	0	33%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	2	1.00	1	29%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.5	3	0.60	1	26%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	3	0.83	0	27%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	3	0.52	1	20%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	2	0.49	1	19%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	1	0.80	0	29%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.49	1	22%	1
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	1	0.40	0	19%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	1	0.62	0	9%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.7	2	0.52	0	21%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.7	2	0.34	1	7%	0
CGY V. Olofsson	1.6	1	0.42	0	20%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	5	0.50	1	20%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	0	0.40	0	21%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.6	0	0.43	0	19%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.3	4	0.29	1	8%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.3	3	0.33	1	15%	1
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.2	0	0.26	0	6%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.2	1	0.42	0	14%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.1	0	0.26	1	6%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.42	0	14%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
CGY O. Määttä	1.1	0	0.34	1	5%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.1	6	0.30	0	6%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	2	0.14	0	6%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	1	0.25	0	10%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
UTA D. Simashev	0.9	0	0.08	0	2%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.8	1	0.14	3	3%	1
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.21	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	2	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.