Game Recap: UTA 2, DAL 3 (OT), January 4, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

UTA2

Final/OTSat, Jan 4, 2025Every game that night

DAL3

DAL beat UTA 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.26 expected goals to 4.53. M. Maccelli led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Benn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Oettinger stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
UTA	0	2	0	0	2
DAL	0	2	0	1	3

2nd 0:16DALJ. Benn0.12 xG
2nd 1:30UTAM. Maccelli0.18 xG
2nd 10:30DALO. Bäck0.18 xG
2nd 13:37UTAM. Maccelli0.11 xG
OT 3:01DALT. Harley0.20 xG

Team Stats

UTADAL

35Shots on goal29

4.53Expected goals3.26

67Shot attempts60

325v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play0/0

21Hits16

19Blocked shots9

0Penalty minutes2

23Giveaways16

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 4.53 xGDAL 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA33 on goal, 2 scored

DAL29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Maccelli	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	17:58	0:19
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	15:12	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	13:45	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	1	1	5	4	1	0	13:20	0:17
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	20:01	1:43
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	19:15	1:54
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:22	1:43
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	16:48	0:17
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	15:21	1:41
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	14:37	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	14:05	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	10:25	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	3	3	5	+1	19:38	0:06
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	27:28	1:41
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	25:18	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	19:21	0:19
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	15:00	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	29	26	3	.897	62:38	OT loss
J. Stauber	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Duchene	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	20:41	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+2	0	19:29	0:00
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	6	4	0	+1	0	18:19	0:00
O. Bäck	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	14:02	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	7:31	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:07	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:26	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:06	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:57	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	15:21	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:10	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:49	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	21:43	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	15:10	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	27:20	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:15	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	21:52	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	35	33	2	.943	63:01	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.7, DAL 3.6	UTA 2, DAL 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	UTA 24.9, DAL 32.5	UTA 35, DAL 29
Win chance	DAL 64%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL W. Johnston	2.8	3	0.81	2	32%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.3	1	0.87	0	30%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.3	5	0.82	0	28%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	2	0.66	0	11%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.1	4	0.48	0	16%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.1	3	0.66	0	25%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.75	0	33%	0
DAL J. Benn	2.0	6	0.81	1	25%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	1	0.81	2	30%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	4	0.66	0	22%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.8	1	0.69	0	22%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.8	3	0.45	1	10%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	1	0.56	0	10%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.5	2	0.30	0	6%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	1	0.45	0	18%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.4	1	0.37	0	15%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.4	0	0.23	1	4%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.4	0	0.29	0	7%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.3	5	0.30	1	14%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	0	0.25	0	12%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.2	1	0.31	1	16%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.2	4	0.41	2	12%	2
DAL S. Steel	1.2	2	0.40	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.20	0	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.36	1	12%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.9	0	0.35	0	15%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.9	3	0.19	1	3%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.9	2	0.22	0	4%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.7	2	0.13	0	5%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.33	1	10%	1
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	2	0.19	0	2%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.5	0	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.