Game Recap: UTA 6, DAL 3, March 16, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA6

FinalMon, Mar 16, 2026Every game that night

DAL3

UTA beat DAL 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.44 expected goals to 3.09. DAL outshot UTA 30 to 22. J. Benn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. V. Vanecek stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	1	4	6
DAL	1	1	1	3

1st 6:17DALS. Steel0.19 xG
1st 12:11UTAC. Keller0.02 xG
2nd 7:20UTAN. Schmidt0.01 xG
2nd 15:34DALW. Johnston0.06 xG
3rd 4:16UTAJ. McBainSH0.23 xG
3rd 8:05UTAK. Yamamoto0.21 xG
3rd 16:06UTAM. CarconePP0.07 xG
3rd 19:20UTAL. CrouseEN0.52 xG
3rd 19:56DALA. Erne0.18 xG

Team Stats

UTADAL

22Shots on goal30

2.44Expected goals3.09

46Shot attempts47

185v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/3

26Hits26

5Blocked shots16

16Penalty minutes16

18Giveaways17

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.44 xGDAL 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA22 on goal, 6 scored

DAL30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:03	3:59
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:13	3:55
L. Crouse	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	18:12	1:14
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:37	1:56
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	15:23	0:08
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	-1	0	14:22	1:37
J. McBain	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	5	13:23	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	11:42	1:49
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	10:00	0:01
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	16:57	3:34
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:51	3:46
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	7:45	0:02
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	20:29	3:04
N. Schmidt	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+2	0	18:28	0:17
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+4	0	21:08	0:10
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	18:51	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	18:21	0:04
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	17:43	2:29

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	30	27	3	.900	59:32	Win
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	3	2	2	-1	0	20:24	3:56
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	19:56	4:20
S. Steel	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	16:57	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	5	2	1	+1	0	16:31	2:59
A. Hyry	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	11:31	0:00
A. Erne	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	5	7:34	0:00
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	19:22	3:33
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	18:07	2:04
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	13:28	3:01
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-2	0	12:51	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:48	2:30
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:34	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	25:08	3:50
E. Lindell	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	22:03	1:37
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	16:52	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-3	0	21:15	2:10
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	5	15:50	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-4	0	14:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	21	16	5	.762	58:40	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller16:07N. Schmaltz14:12L. Crouse13:49

Line 2M. Carcone12:10B. Hayton12:04J. McBain9:59

Line 3L. Cooley11:06J. Peterka9:53D. Guenther10:40

Line 4A. Kerfoot11:59K. Yamamoto9:59B. Tanev7:43

Pair 1J. Marino16:20N. Schmidt15:43

Pair 2M. Weegar18:44M. Sergachev14:08

Pair 3I. Cole13:47S. Durzi14:32

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson15:19W. Johnston14:53M. Bourque15:31

Line 2M. Duchene14:16S. Steel14:00J. Benn12:22

Line 3C. Blackwell10:50M. Bunting10:22J. Hryckowian8:25

Line 4A. Hyry8:54A. Erne7:34O. Bäck7:16

Pair 1T. Myers15:50L. Bichsel14:44

Pair 2E. Lindell15:10M. Heiskanen18:02

Pair 3N. Lundkvist13:25T. Harley16:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.7, DAL 3.2	UTA 6, DAL 3
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	UTA 24.5, DAL 25.5	UTA 22, DAL 30
Win chance	DAL 59%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	2.9	3	1.08	1	37%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	1	0.77	0	30%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	3	0.89	1	27%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.2	3	0.85	1	33%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	1	0.79	1	25%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	1	0.57	1	12%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	0	0.67	1	10%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.9	1	0.52	0	20%	0
UTA M. Weegar	1.8	2	0.34	0	8%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.44	0	16%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	4	0.48	0	11%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.47	0	19%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.6	1	0.78	0	26%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.6	2	0.55	1	21%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.6	0	0.48	1	20%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	1	0.41	1	19%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.5	5	0.66	1	22%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	2	0.34	1	16%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.3	0	0.37	0	9%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.2	0	0.17	1	9%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.28	1	10%	1
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	2	0.42	0	16%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.1	3	0.18	1	3%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.1	2	0.22	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.40	1	12%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	1	0.31	1	7%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	2	0.26	1	6%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.9	1	0.20	1	10%	1
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	2	0.26	1	11%	1
UTA A. Kerfoot	0.8	0	0.26	1	9%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	0	0.31	0	4%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	1	0.17	0	6%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.