Game Recap: UTA 1, EDM 4, December 31, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

UTA1

FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat UTA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.31 expected goals to 2.33. EDM outshot UTA 38 to 27. M. Ekholm led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Kulak had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Skinner stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	0	0	1
EDM	1	2	1	4

1st 4:26EDMM. Ekholm0.11 xG
1st 6:00UTAJ. McBain0.25 xG
2nd 4:53EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.10 xG
2nd 5:13EDMT. Stecher0.07 xG
3rd 18:58EDML. DraisaitlEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

UTAEDM

27Shots on goal38

2.33Expected goals4.31

54Shot attempts65

205v5 shots on goal32

0/2Power play0/3

15Hits4

14Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes6

25Giveaways13

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.33 xGEDM 4.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA25 on goal, 1 scored

EDM38 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	18:40	2:39
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	16:46	2:24
J. McBain	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	13:50	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:41	2:50
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	18:20	2:10
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	17:19	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:11	1:26
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:51	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:36	1:56
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:29	1:34
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	11:27	1:01
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	2	9:13	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	24:08	2:08
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	22:10	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	22:04	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:12	1:52
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:50	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Stauber	37	34	3	.919	58:36	Loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	21:11	3:37
C. Brown	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	14:05	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	20:47	3:35
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:08	3:14
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	13:12	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	16:37	3:35
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	14:00	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:54	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	12:28	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:15	0:42
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:56	0:25
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	10:53	1:05
M. Ekholm	D	1	1	2	2	0	3	+3	0	23:19	0:26
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	22:20	3:34
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:19	0:00
T. Stecher	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	10:11	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	22:50	1:03
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	-1	0	22:35	0:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDylan Guenther UTA Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.8, EDM 3.9	UTA 1, EDM 4
Total goals	6.8	5
Shots on goal	UTA 25.1, EDM 32.8	UTA 27, EDM 38
Win chance	EDM 67%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	2	1.71	2	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	3	0.87	0	40%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.7	2	1.42	1	45%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	3	0.85	1	15%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.3	3	0.62	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.2	4	0.40	0	9%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	2	0.47	2	11%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.1	2	0.64	1	25%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.8	1	0.70	0	22%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.8	2	0.63	1	21%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	3	0.80	1	24%	1
EDM J. Skinner	1.6	1	0.44	0	20%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	4	0.32	0	7%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.4	2	0.60	0	10%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	2	0.31	0	17%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.4	0	0.35	0	14%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	3	0.31	1	13%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.3	2	0.30	0	15%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	1	0.45	0	21%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.3	3	0.32	0	7%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.2	0	0.29	0	16%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.2	3	0.41	0	12%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	0	0.33	2	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.1	1	0.31	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.19	0	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	2	0.34	0	12%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	0	0.31	0	16%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.9	2	0.34	1	14%	1
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.19	1	3%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	0.8	2	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	0	0.22	0	5%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	2	0.13	1	3%	1
UTA L. O'Brien	0.8	2	0.14	0	6%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	3	0.31	0	10%	0
UTA V. Kolyachonok	0.5	0	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.