Game Recap: UTA 1, EDM 7, March 18, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA1

FinalTue, Mar 18, 2025Every game that night

EDM7

EDM beat UTA 7-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.75 expected goals to 2.04. EDM outshot UTA 43 to 30. Z. Hyman led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Z. Hyman had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Pickard stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	1	0	1
EDM	3	2	2	7

1st 12:28EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsSH0.03 xG
1st 15:14EDMZ. Hyman0.10 xG
1st 19:56EDMC. McDavid0.15 xG
2nd 7:41EDMZ. Hyman0.39 xG
2nd 9:53EDMV. Podkolzin0.04 xG
2nd 16:26UTAS. Durzi0.04 xG
3rd 0:33EDMM. Ekholm0.22 xG
3rd 2:36EDMV. Arvidsson0.11 xG

Team Stats

UTAEDM

30Shots on goal43

2.04Expected goals5.75

61Shot attempts72

285v5 shots on goal34

0/3Power play0/3

22Hits18

13Blocked shots22

11Penalty minutes11

17Giveaways12

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.04 xGEDM 5.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA30 on goal, 1 scored

EDM43 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	-2	0	16:26	2:05
M. Carcone	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	11:32	1:40
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:16	3:41
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	17:14	3:29
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-3	0	17:05	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	16:21	3:06
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	16:14	1:30
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	14:58	3:37
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	7	14:49	1:25
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:28	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	13:04	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	10:01	0:00
S. Durzi	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	20:53	2:18
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	24:28	2:54
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	20:31	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	-3	4	17:39	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	17:03	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	14:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	15	12	3	.800	20:00	Loss
J. Stauber	28	24	4	.857	40:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	2	3	4	1	0	+4	0	16:46	3:52
Z. Hyman	LW	2	1	3	8	0	0	+4	2	16:11	3:06
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+4	0	15:03	2:25
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	13:09	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	12:55	0:20
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	+2	0	22:23	5:09
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:47	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:05	2:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	12:34	0:57
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	12:11	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:10	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:45	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	1	2	3	3	2	4	+3	0	21:27	0:57
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+4	0	22:54	3:52
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	2	20:27	0:44
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	7	2	+1	7	20:23	1:20
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	18:33	1:03
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDylan Guenther UTA Plays in his hometown3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.0, EDM 3.4	UTA 1, EDM 7
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	UTA 27.6, EDM 30.7	UTA 30, EDM 43
Win chance	EDM 57%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	6	1.38	0	44%	0
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	4	1.57	3	39%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	3	0.76	0	29%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	3	0.82	1	17%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	8	0.69	3	34%	2
UTA C. Keller	2.5	2	0.94	0	30%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	3	0.40	0	11%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.1	1	0.44	0	13%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.1	1	0.53	0	20%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.0	1	0.51	1	19%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.9	2	0.72	0	23%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.64	1	23%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	3	0.44	3	12%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	4	0.72	3	22%	1
EDM J. Skinner	1.7	2	0.45	0	20%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.5	1	0.41	0	14%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.4	3	0.54	0	10%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	0	0.32	0	7%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.3	2	0.29	0	16%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	0	0.37	0	18%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.2	1	0.36	1	8%	1
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.2	2	0.25	0	12%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	1	0.32	0	10%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.2	1	0.29	1	15%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	1	0.27	1	11%	1
UTA M. Kesselring	1.1	4	0.24	0	6%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.35	0	13%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	2	0.38	0	18%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	2	0.32	0	14%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	1	0.21	0	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	0.9	2	0.26	0	11%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	1	0.23	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.7	1	0.28	0	4%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	1	0.13	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	1	0.25	0	9%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.6	0	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.