Game Recap: UTA 1, NJD 4, January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA1

FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat UTA 4-1, with the chances close: 3.17 expected goals to 3.02. J. Bratt led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Meier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Markstrom stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	0	1	1
NJD	2	2	0	4

1st 12:27NJDJ. Bratt0.05 xG
1st 14:18NJDT. Meier0.04 xG
2nd 15:13NJDN. HischierPP0.16 xG
2nd 16:43NJDD. Hamilton0.02 xG
3rd 12:35UTAM. Carcone0.09 xG

Team Stats

UTANJD

31Shots on goal30

3.02Expected goals3.17

61Shot attempts49

255v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play1/3

28Hits24

8Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.02 xGNJD 3.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA30 on goal, 1 scored

NJD30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Hayton	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	12:42	1:11
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	11:44	1:12
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	22:46	2:48
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	2	22:17	2:52
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	2	17:20	2:38
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:52	2:49
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	15:07	1:21
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:11	0:00
D. But	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:18	1:09
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	12:36	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:06	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	10:01	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	20:44	2:13
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:38	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	2	20:59	1:47
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:28	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:42	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	30	26	4	.867	60:00	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:17	3:43
J. Bratt	LW	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	0	18:38	3:43
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:06	3:43
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:35	0:21
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	7	1	1	+1	0	16:20	1:55
L. Glendening	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:12	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:27	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:12	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:44	0:21
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	13:21	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	11:46	2:09
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	9:46	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	2	2	3	0	5	+1	0	22:56	0:21
D. Hamilton	D	1	0	1	3	3	3	+1	0	22:47	1:25
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	21:44	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	2	20:14	2:39
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:53	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz19:21C. Keller19:58J. Peterka13:03

Line 2L. O'Brien10:01K. Stenlund11:06A. Kerfoot10:10

Line 3L. Crouse11:55B. Hayton11:31D. Guenther14:42

Line 4J. McBain11:27D. But12:09M. Carcone10:32

Pair 1N. Schmidt20:13J. Marino19:54

Pair 2M. Sergachev16:43S. Durzi18:31

Pair 3I. Cole13:59N. DeSimone14:25

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt13:38J. Hughes15:34N. Hischier14:03

Line 2T. Meier14:25D. Mercer14:56A. Gritsyuk14:27

Line 3C. Brown12:45C. Glass13:23O. Palat12:10

Line 4S. Noesen9:37J. Lammikko9:46L. Glendening10:48

Pair 1D. Hamilton19:19J. Siegenthaler19:41

Pair 2B. Pesce20:35L. Hughes17:35

Pair 3B. Dillon14:56C. White12:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.1, NJD 2.9	UTA 1, NJD 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	UTA 28.0, NJD 27.4	UTA 31, NJD 30
Win chance	UTA 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	2	1.15	2	38%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	3	0.77	0	30%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.8	7	0.65	1	30%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.6	4	0.88	0	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	3	0.44	1	12%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	2	0.86	1	31%	1
UTA J. Peterka	2.2	3	0.74	0	27%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	6	0.78	0	25%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	4	0.89	2	25%	1
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	2	0.59	0	10%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.9	1	0.44	0	18%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	1	0.60	0	11%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	3	0.40	1	19%	1
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	2	0.44	0	22%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	2	0.48	1	22%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	1	0.39	1	16%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.6	1	0.42	1	8%	0
UTA D. But	1.6	2	0.22	0	11%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	0	0.36	0	15%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.6	0	0.48	0	18%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	3	0.26	2	6%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.3	2	0.39	0	16%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	2	0.27	0	5%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	1	0.29	0	11%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	0	0.13	0	6%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.31	0	4%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	0	0.14	0	1%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.11	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.