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Game Recap
UTA5
FinalTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night
NJD3

UTA beat NJD 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.75. N. Schmaltz led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Meier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. K. Vejmelka stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA1315
NJD1113
  1. 1st 1:57UTAC. KellerPP0.09 xG
  2. 1st 12:23NJDL. EvangelistaPP0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 1:42UTAM. Weegar0.10 xG
  4. 2nd 6:31NJDL. Evangelista0.11 xG
  5. 2nd 12:05UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.11 xG
  6. 2nd 19:03UTAL. Crouse0.33 xG
  7. 3rd 9:49NJDJ. Boqvist0.13 xG
  8. 3rd 16:52UTAV. Trocheck0.21 xG

Team Stats

UTANJD
31Shots on goal33
3.96Expected goals2.75
61Shot attempts66
205v5 shots on goal21
2/4Power play1/5
24Hits10
21Blocked shots14
15Penalty minutes13
24Giveaways22
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.96 xGNJD 2.75 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdUTA goal, 1:57NJD goal, 12:23UTA goal, 1:42NJD goal, 6:31UTA goal, 12:05UTA goal, 19:03NJD goal, 9:49UTA goal, 16:52

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA31 on goal, 5 scored
NJD33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SchmaltzC123420+1019:476:32
C. KellerRW1123100018:186:32
L. CooleyC0111120018:526:26
D. GuentherRW0115100017:316:32
L. CrouseLW101120+1215:310:00
V. TrocheckC1011210014:440:30
B. HaytonC011200+1012:370:00
A. LeeLW011210+1010:490:36
K. StenlundC000112-1015:440:00
J. McBainC0001320513:120:00
D. ButLW0000100010:560:30
M. CarconeLW0003200010:500:30
M. SergachevD0332000015:044:32
M. WeegarD101326+1620:170:00
N. SchmidtD0002220023:270:00
J. MarinoD0000000019:132:30
D. SimashevD000031+1218:220:00
A. PeekeD0000050017:000:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka33303.90959:46Win
S. Cossa000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. EvangelistaRW202201+1018:184:44
J. HughesC011501-2021:325:24
J. BrattLW011210-2018:595:04
T. MeierRW011802+1418:143:52
J. BoqvistC101210009:490:00
N. HischierC0000020023:084:41
E. RodriguesC0000200015:502:45
A. ManthaRW000200-1012:282:48
C. GlassC0000000012:230:00
A. GritsyukRW0002100011:482:17
D. MercerC0002010011:040:00
A. LombardiC0003100010:120:13
D. HamiltonD011122-1022:442:18
D. ChisholmD011002+1015:060:00
L. HughesD000300-1026:135:25
B. PesceD0001020020:570:13
J. SiegenthalerD000001-1014:530:00
B. DillonD0000200911:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen31265.83957:29Loss
N. Daws000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz11:38C. Keller11:32V. Trocheck12:13
Line 2D. Guenther10:25L. Cooley10:37A. Lee9:59
Line 3M. Carcone10:20D. But10:26K. Stenlund11:31
Line 4L. Crouse11:29B. Hayton10:23J. McBain10:19
Pair 1N. Schmidt18:59J. Marino16:11
Pair 2M. Weegar16:38M. Sergachev6:45
Pair 3A. Peeke12:02D. Simashev17:18

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt12:38J. Hughes14:51A. Mantha9:40
Line 2T. Meier13:18L. Evangelista12:39N. Hischier13:09
Line 3J. Boqvist9:35A. Lombardi9:32C. Glass9:04
Line 4E. Rodrigues8:48D. Mercer8:24A. Gritsyuk9:31
Pair 1B. Pesce18:28L. Hughes18:49
Pair 2D. Hamilton15:46J. Siegenthaler11:24
Pair 3B. Dillon9:57D. Chisholm13:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

16 of 24 overs hit (67%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5+120-1255Over
UTA C. Keller2.5+120-1303Over
UTA D. Guenther2.5-120+1025Over
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+145-1651Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+140-1450Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+140-1644Over
NJD T. Meier2.5-130+1158Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-115-1102Over
UTA A. Lee1.5-155+1302Over
NJD A. Mantha1.5+100-1252Over
UTA B. Hayton1.5+130-1652Over
NJD B. Pesce1.5+150-1901Under
NJD C. Glass1.5+125-1550Under
NJD D. Mercer1.5+120-1302Over
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-130+1250Under
NJD J. Bratt1.5-150+1252Over
UTA L. Cooley1.5-115+1101Under
UTA L. Crouse1.5-110-1201Under
NJD L. Evangelista1.5-175+1442Over
NJD L. Hughes1.5-180+1463Over
UTA M. Carcone1.5+105-1403Over
UTA M. Sergachev1.5-140+1202Over
UTA M. Weegar1.5+110-1303Over
UTA V. Trocheck1.5-115-1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.1, NJD 3.1UTA 5, NJD 3
Total goals6.28
Shots on goalUTA 26.3, NJD 29.2UTA 31, NJD 33
Win chanceUTA 50%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.751.21137%0
NJD T. Meier3.180.60128%0
UTA D. Guenther2.950.83132%0
UTA C. Keller2.630.99228%1
NJD D. Hamilton2.510.55113%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.440.80327%1
NJD N. Hischier2.300.78029%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.120.46017%0
NJD L. Evangelista2.120.61217%2
NJD J. Bratt2.120.85124%0
NJD L. Hughes2.130.5408%0
UTA A. Lee2.020.45120%0
UTA L. Cooley1.910.75128%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.800.42015%0
UTA L. Crouse1.810.49123%1
UTA M. Sergachev1.820.69311%0
NJD D. Mercer1.820.45021%0
UTA M. Carcone1.730.39019%0
NJD A. Mantha1.620.62024%0
UTA M. Weegar1.630.4118%1
UTA V. Trocheck1.610.64121%1
UTA B. Hayton1.420.34113%0
NJD C. Glass1.200.31014%0
NJD B. Pesce1.210.2204%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.120.30114%1
UTA D. But1.100.23011%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.120.3007%0
UTA J. McBain1.110.27011%0
UTA A. Peeke0.900.1804%0
UTA K. Stenlund0.910.24010%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.800.2002%0
UTA D. Simashev0.800.1002%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.800.1713%0
UTA J. Marino0.700.3704%0
NJD B. Dillon0.600.1703%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.