Game Recap: UTA 2, OTT 4, November 9, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA2

FinalSun, Nov 9, 2025Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.39 expected goals to 3.56. J. Spence led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Spence had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. L. Meriläinen stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	1	0	2
OTT	1	2	1	4

1st 13:59OTTR. Greig0.42 xG
1st 17:33UTAC. Keller0.72 xG
2nd 7:13OTTJ. Spence0.16 xG
2nd 15:52OTTN. Cousins0.05 xG
2nd 18:56UTAN. Schmaltz0.22 xG
3rd 3:46OTTM. Amadio0.10 xG

Team Stats

UTAOTT

31Shots on goal25

3.56Expected goals3.39

58Shot attempts46

245v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play0/2

13Hits28

9Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways15

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.56 xGOTT 3.39 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA31 on goal, 2 scored

OTT25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	20:50	0:29
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	20:43	1:18
C. Keller	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	20:33	0:31
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	17:33	1:31
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	16:53	1:33
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	15:21	1:29
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:11	0:19
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:10	0:42
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	11:53	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	11:49	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	2	10:11	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:19	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	26:07	1:12
N. DeSimone	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:47	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	23:21	0:08
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:22	0:48
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:08	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	25	21	4	.840	57:14	Loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greig	C	1	1	2	1	3	1	+2	0	17:55	1:37
D. Cozens	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	0	14:20	1:46
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:52	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:18	2:08
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	10:00	0:09
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	19:36	0:57
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:13	2:15
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	17:13	1:38
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:53	1:39
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:15	1:01
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	12:59	2:15
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	6:55	0:07
J. Spence	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	20:01	0:13
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	22:14	2:03
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:00	1:47
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:58	0:15
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:44	0:10
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1C. Keller16:24L. Cooley17:14N. Schmaltz14:53

Line 2B. Hayton13:22J. Peterka14:48D. Guenther13:05

Line 3M. Carcone9:55J. McBain10:06L. Crouse9:13

Line 4K. Stenlund9:02K. Yamamoto11:09B. Tanev8:19

Pair 1J. Marino18:13N. Schmidt17:22

Pair 2M. Sergachev18:36D. Simashev17:23

Pair 3I. Cole14:35N. DeSimone12:31

OTT

Line 1C. Giroux13:31S. Pinto14:59M. Amadio14:18

Line 2D. Perron13:10D. Batherson14:48T. Stützle12:20

Line 3F. Zetterlund12:50D. Cozens12:15R. Greig12:58

Line 4N. Cousins9:51H. Hodgson6:48L. Eller9:50

Pair 1A. Zub16:55J. Sanderson16:22

Pair 2T. Chabot17:37J. Spence18:57

Pair 3N. Jensen13:27T. Kleven15:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.1, OTT 3.0	UTA 2, OTT 4
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	UTA 26.9, OTT 25.9	UTA 31, OTT 25
Win chance	UTA 52%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	4	0.78	0	29%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.5	5	0.94	1	30%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	4	0.82	1	26%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	0	0.61	2	23%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	3	0.56	0	10%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.68	0	28%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	0	0.77	0	26%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	1	0.89	0	27%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	1	0.80	1	28%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	2	0.62	0	23%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	1	0.56	1	12%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.42	0	17%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	1	0.65	1	12%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.6	1	0.33	0	15%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	3	0.33	0	19%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	1	0.46	2	18%	1
OTT D. Perron	1.5	2	0.53	1	22%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	3	0.63	0	21%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.5	1	0.36	0	18%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.3	2	0.33	0	6%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	2	0.40	1	20%	1
OTT L. Eller	1.1	3	0.33	0	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	1	0.29	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.29	0	14%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.1	0	0.14	0	3%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.0	4	0.32	2	4%	1
OTT H. Hodgson	1.0	0	0.27	0	10%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	2	0.24	1	10%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	0	0.15	0	4%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	1	0.23	1	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	1	0.33	0	4%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.