Game Recap: UTA 6, PIT 1, November 23, 2024

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Game Recap

UTA6

FinalSat, Nov 23, 2024Every game that night

PIT1

UTA beat PIT 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.58 expected goals to 2.56. D. Guenther led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Crosby had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. K. Vejmelka stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	2	1	3	6
PIT	0	1	0	1

1st 8:54UTAJ. McBain0.11 xG
1st 13:07UTAM. Sergachev0.06 xG
2nd 3:11PITS. CrosbyPP0.19 xG
2nd 10:37UTAN. BjugstadPP0.12 xG
3rd 6:38UTAD. GuentherPP0.20 xG
3rd 7:25UTAA. Kerfoot0.11 xG
3rd 15:59UTAD. GuentherPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

UTAPIT

30Shots on goal28

3.58Expected goals2.56

54Shot attempts58

235v5 shots on goal20

3/4Power play1/4

31Hits42

15Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways7

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.58 xGPIT 2.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA30 on goal, 6 scored

PIT28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	3	3	1	0	1	+1	0	18:05	4:37
D. Guenther	RW	2	1	3	2	0	2	+1	0	16:21	4:26
N. Schmaltz	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	2	18:01	4:38
L. Cooley	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	0	16:52	4:26
M. Carcone	LW	0	2	2	5	1	0	+1	0	10:00	0:58
N. Bjugstad	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:56	0:57
J. McBain	C	1	0	1	1	7	0	+1	0	13:44	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:40	0:12
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:24	0:59
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	14:47	0:56
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:36	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:09	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	24:22	4:44
M. Lamoureux	D	0	1	1	3	3	2	+1	6	17:52	0:05
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	0	17:16	0:53
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	7	0	+1	0	21:00	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	20:10	0:14
R. Bortuzzo	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	14:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	28	27	1	.964	59:48	Win
J. Stauber	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	0	1	7	2	0	-2	0	18:44	4:15
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:51	4:15
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	17:54	3:39
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	17:51	3:36
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	16:10	1:03
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:31	0:10
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	14:28	0:10
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	13:07	0:00
J. Puljujarvi	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	13:00	1:29
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	11:24	0:53
M. Nieto	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:06	0:00
S. Poulin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:05	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	22:44	3:47
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	-1	0	24:17	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	23:49	1:43
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	2	18:36	1:30
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:00	0:00
O. Pickering	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	30	24	6	.800	59:55	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownLogan Cooley UTA Plays in his hometown2 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.2, PIT 3.1	UTA 6, PIT 1
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	UTA 28.7, PIT 31.8	UTA 30, PIT 28
Win chance	UTA 51%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	7	1.08	1	33%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.6	1	0.75	0	29%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.6	1	0.94	3	31%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.6	0	0.68	0	26%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	2	0.75	3	27%	2
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	3	0.71	1	16%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	2	0.88	0	28%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	3	0.61	2	22%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	3	0.53	0	12%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	1.9	3	0.82	2	24%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	1	0.76	1	12%	1
PIT D. O'Connor	1.8	1	0.39	0	17%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	4	0.45	0	22%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	1.7	0	0.37	0	15%	0
PIT M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.54	0	19%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	0	0.41	0	16%	0
PIT J. Puljujarvi	1.6	0	0.29	0	12%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.6	1	0.42	1	19%	1
UTA M. Maccelli	1.5	2	0.65	0	17%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.5	1	0.52	1	16%	1
UTA M. Kesselring	1.4	1	0.42	1	8%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.3	5	0.30	2	17%	0
PIT M. Pettersson	1.2	2	0.37	0	5%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	2	0.25	0	14%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.20	0	12%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.1	0	0.26	0	10%	0
PIT M. Nieto	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	3	0.28	0	5%	0
UTA M. Lamoureux	1.0	3	0.22	1	6%	0
PIT R. Graves	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.9	0	0.27	0	5%	0
UTA J. McBain	0.8	1	0.37	1	14%	1
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	1	0.26	0	6%	0
PIT S. Poulin	0.6	1	0.23	0	9%	0
UTA R. Bortuzzo	0.4	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.