Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
UTA3
SEA2
UTA beat SEA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.21 expected goals to 2.28. L. Cooley led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A).
Team Stats
UTASEA
21Shots on goal20
4.21Expected goals2.28
62Shot attempts51
255v5 shots on goal21
2/4Power play0/2
8Hits13
7Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways8
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 4.21 xGSEA 2.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 4:13 |
| L. Cooley | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:05 | 4:34 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 4:25 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 4:27 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 1:35 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 1:32 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 1:28 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:38 | 1:37 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 4:05 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 2:09 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:25 | 0:03 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:02 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 42:03 | |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 2:16 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:32 | 2:14 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 2:13 |
| B. McMann | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:59 | 2:13 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:26 | 1:49 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 1:56 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 1:58 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:56 | 1:59 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 5:50 | 0:00 |
| O. Fisker Molgaard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:10 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 2:08 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 12:58 | 2:04 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 42:07 | |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
UTA
Line 1M. Carcone12:48J. Peterka14:19J. McBain8:25
Line 2N. Schmaltz12:13C. Keller14:02L. Crouse11:50
Line 3D. Guenther12:03L. Cooley12:27K. Yamamoto11:18
Line 4K. Stenlund11:28B. Tanev9:39A. Kerfoot12:30
Pair 1N. Schmidt18:01J. Marino16:59
Pair 3M. Sergachev15:48M. Weegar14:24
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle15:46M. Beniers15:27J. McCann14:00
Line 2C. Stephenson11:54B. McMann12:14K. Kakko11:38
Line 3F. Gaudreau12:15B. Catton13:04J. Schwartz10:24
Line 4J. Melanson9:40O. Molgaard8:05E. Tolvanen8:34
Pair 1B. Montour17:39R. Evans17:50
Pair 2A. Larsson16:33V. Dunn17:04
Pair 3J. Oleksiak14:34R. Lindgren11:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.2, SEA 3.0 | UTA 3, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 27.5, SEA 25.7 | UTA 21, SEA 20 |
| Win chance | UTA 53% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.0 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.8 | 2 | 0.99 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 5 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA B. McMann | 2.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.1 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.0 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.9 | 3 | 0.71 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.8 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.3 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA O. Molgaard | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.7 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Melanson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA B. Tanev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.