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Game Recap
UTA0
TBL8
TBL beat UTA 8-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.95 expected goals to 1.65. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TBL | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
- 1st 1:30TBLJ. Guentzel0.19 xG
- 1st 4:20TBLV. Hedman0.06 xG
- 2nd 5:05TBLG. Goncalves0.09 xG
- 2nd 9:14TBLN. Kucherov0.06 xG
- 2nd 17:54TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 19:36TBLO. Bjorkstrand0.18 xG
- 3rd 8:59TBLB. Point0.40 xG
- 3rd 14:54TBLO. Bjorkstrand0.06 xG
Team Stats
UTATBL
25Shots on goal22
1.65Expected goals2.95
58Shot attempts43
235v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play1/2
23Hits11
9Blocked shots23
9Penalty minutes9
14Giveaways17
4Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 1.65 xGTBL 2.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:49 | 2:30 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:34 | 2:34 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:10 | 2:21 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 15:34 | 2:20 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:10 | 1:30 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:39 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 1:23 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 1:39 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 22:53 | 2:16 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:03 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:15 | 1:45 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 5 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 12 | 8 | 4 | .667 | 29:14 | Loss |
| J. Stauber | 10 | 6 | 4 | .600 | 30:46 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:22 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:47 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:20 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:19 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:46 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 1:18 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:46 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:44 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:52 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:02 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:14 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.0, TBL 3.6 | UTA 0, TBL 8 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 27.6, TBL 29.1 | UTA 25, TBL 22 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.8 | 5 | 1.41 | 4 | 33% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.7 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.4 | 2 | 1.04 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 0 | 0.95 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.1 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 3 | 14% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.8 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.8 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.