Game Recap: UTA 0, TBL 2, January 26, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

UTA0

FinalMon, Jan 26, 2026Every game that night

TBL2

TBL beat UTA 2-0, with the chances close: 3.63 expected goals to 3.60. N. Kucherov led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Hayton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	0	0	0	0
TBL	0	1	1	2

2nd 17:38TBLD. RaddyshPP0.06 xG
3rd 19:14TBLA. CirelliPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

UTATBL

28Shots on goal29

3.60Expected goals3.63

65Shot attempts53

235v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play2/4

18Hits18

8Blocked shots20

19Penalty minutes17

10Giveaways10

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.60 xGTBL 3.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA28 on goal, 0 scored

TBL29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	0	0	22:14	4:12
C. Keller	RW	1	0	0	0	19:56	4:09
D. Guenther	RW	5	0	1	0	18:28	3:43
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	1	2	17:51	1:47
B. Hayton	C	5	0	0	0	15:28	3:45
J. Peterka	RW	2	0	1	0	14:27	2:17
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	0	0	13:47	0:00
J. McBain	C	3	2	0	0	13:13	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	4	4	0	0	12:55	1:46
D. But	LW	2	1	0	0	12:50	2:16
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	0	10:06	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	3	0	0	7:39	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	2	2	1	6	25:04	4:21
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	2	0	21:03	0:05
S. Durzi	D	2	1	0	2	20:39	1:39
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	2	20:15	0:00
I. Cole	D	1	1	0	7	13:40	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	2	2	5	0	3	0	18:20	5:56
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:33	6:34
A. Cirelli	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:17	2:57
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	2	21:46	5:56
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:07	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	1	4	6	16:39	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:38	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:14	1:06
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:44	3:45
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	12:34	1:06
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	8:41	0:21
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7:11	0:10
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	3	0	5	0	25:29	1:23
D. Raddysh	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	25:17	5:56
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:54	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17:24	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	15:15	0:00
M. Groshev	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	28	28	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:45C. Keller15:47L. Crouse13:26

Line 2D. Guenther13:12J. McBain10:52M. Carcone11:09

Line 3J. Peterka12:03D. But10:34B. Hayton11:02

Line 4K. Yamamoto10:06K. Stenlund9:20B. Tanev7:39

Pair 1S. Durzi17:09M. Sergachev18:20

Pair 2N. Schmidt17:06J. Marino17:23

Pair 3I. Cole11:21N. DeSimone12:36

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde15:59P. Holmberg14:38Z. Girgensons14:23

Line 2N. Kucherov12:24B. Hagel14:01A. Cirelli11:32

Line 3G. Goncalves11:28D. James12:08J. Guentzel10:42

Line 4O. Bjorkstrand8:59N. Paul7:41J. Finley7:01

Pair 1D. Raddysh18:10J. Moser20:22

Pair 2D. Carlile15:35M. Crozier17:51

Pair 3E. Cernak11:59M. Groshev9:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMikhail Sergachev UTA Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 2.9, TBL 3.4	UTA 0, TBL 2
Total goals	6.3	2
Shots on goal	UTA 25.5, TBL 26.7	UTA 28, TBL 29
Win chance	TBL 59%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	5	0.72	0	29%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	2.8	5	1.55	2	36%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.7	4	1.04	0	34%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.5	1	1.00	1	37%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.5	3	0.76	1	14%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.4	1	0.82	0	27%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	0	0.72	0	24%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.9	0	0.46	0	23%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	4	0.38	0	19%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	2	0.53	0	11%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.8	2	0.55	0	22%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	1	0.58	0	21%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	5	0.36	0	15%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.6	1	0.58	1	21%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	2	0.37	0	8%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	3	0.31	1	7%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	1	0.44	0	15%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	1	0.24	0	3%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.3	1	0.35	0	17%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.3	3	0.30	0	13%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	1	0.33	0	14%	0
UTA D. But	1.2	2	0.24	0	11%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.21	0	12%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
TBL D. James	1.0	4	0.32	0	12%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.24	0	12%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	0	0.15	0	5%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	1	0.25	0	11%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.8	1	0.33	0	12%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.8	0	0.14	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	0	0.30	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	2	0.17	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.5	0	0.16	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.