Game Recap: UTA 3, TOR 5, November 5, 2025

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Game Recap

UTA3

FinalWed, Nov 5, 2025Every game that night

TOR5

TOR beat UTA 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 1.91. J. Tavares led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Stolarz stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	1	1	1	3
TOR	0	2	3	5

1st 18:49UTAM. Carcone0.15 xG
2nd 4:46TORW. Nylander0.14 xG
2nd 8:56TORA. Matthews0.10 xG
2nd 16:27UTAM. Sergachev0.03 xG
3rd 8:06TORJ. Tavares0.17 xG
3rd 15:40TORM. Maccelli0.15 xG
3rd 17:01TORM. KniesEN0.59 xG
3rd 18:53UTAD. Guenther0.13 xG

Team Stats

UTATOR

24Shots on goal19

1.91Expected goals3.49

45Shot attempts40

205v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/1

17Hits15

6Blocked shots8

2Penalty minutes6

26Giveaways19

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 1.91 xGTOR 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA23 on goal, 3 scored

TOR18 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	0	18:22	4:35
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:51	1:25
L. Crouse	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	13:22	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	22:14	4:29
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:34	4:27
L. Cooley	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	18:52	4:34
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:30	1:26
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:42	1:29
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:23	1:31
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	13:20	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:17	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:09	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	-1	0	24:26	4:09
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:05	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	19:34	1:55
D. Simashev	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:28	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-3	0	17:10	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	18	14	4	.778	58:19	Loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	0	20:10	1:20
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	19:28	1:20
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	2	15:05	1:21
M. Maccelli	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	12:07	0:41
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:44	1:19
D. Joshua	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	13:51	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:49	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:11	0:39
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	13:18	0:40
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	11:30	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	10:57	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:47	0:40
J. McCabe	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	23:42	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	22:20	1:18
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	20:27	0:42
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	2	20:11	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:25	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz15:02C. Keller14:26B. Hayton13:57

Line 2D. Guenther12:13L. Cooley12:41J. Peterka11:32

Line 3L. Crouse11:40J. McBain13:20M. Carcone12:26

Line 4K. Stenlund11:06K. Yamamoto11:51B. Tanev11:09

Pair 1D. Simashev18:20M. Sergachev17:41

Pair 2N. Schmidt16:58J. Marino19:00

Pair 3I. Cole15:51O. Määttä12:22

TOR

Line 1M. Knies15:21A. Matthews15:56W. Nylander16:27

Line 2J. Tavares13:39N. Robertson12:38B. McMann12:27

Line 3N. Roy12:16M. Maccelli11:26D. Joshua12:01

Line 4M. Domi10:07S. Laughton9:16S. Lorentz9:21

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson18:35J. McCabe18:19

Pair 2M. Rielly19:25B. Carlo16:15

Pair 3P. Myers15:13D. Mermis12:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownBrandon Tanev UTA Plays in his hometown0 SOG
HometownJack McBain UTA Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.0, TOR 3.3	UTA 3, TOR 5
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	UTA 28.5, TOR 26.7	UTA 24, TOR 19
Win chance	TOR 55%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.9	2	1.17	1	46%	1
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	3	0.76	1	27%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	1	1.08	2	38%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.6	2	0.92	0	28%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.6	3	0.87	2	33%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	1	0.80	0	24%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	1	0.81	2	29%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	0	0.76	0	26%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	1	0.59	0	21%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	1	0.43	1	22%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.9	3	0.48	0	22%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	3	0.65	1	13%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.40	0	15%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	3	0.63	1	12%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	0	0.29	1	16%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.4	2	0.30	1	15%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.4	1	0.16	0	5%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.47	2	15%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.3	1	0.46	0	14%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	0	0.40	1	8%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.3	1	0.31	1	7%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	0	0.42	0	17%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.36	0	14%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	2	0.18	0	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	2	0.27	0	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.1	2	0.10	1	4%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.29	0	12%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.34	1	17%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.35	2	7%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
TOR D. Mermis	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.31	1	4%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	2	0.20	0	3%	0
UTA O. Määttä	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.