Game Recap: UTA 7, VAN 4, April 4, 2026

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Game Recap

UTA7

FinalSat, Apr 4, 2026Every game that night

VAN4

UTA beat VAN 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 2.99 expected goals to 1.63. C. Keller scored three for UTA. K. Vejmelka stopped 19 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
UTA	2	2	3	7
VAN	1	1	2	4

1st 2:28VANL. Karlsson0.05 xG
1st 13:34UTAK. Yamamoto0.02 xG
1st 18:30UTAC. Keller0.08 xG
2nd 2:05VANL. Karlsson0.06 xG
2nd 7:04UTAC. KellerPP0.09 xG
2nd 11:55UTAD. Guenther0.05 xG
3rd 0:20VANJ. DeBruskPP0.14 xG
3rd 1:32UTAL. Crouse0.13 xG
3rd 4:40VANM. RossiPP0.03 xG
3rd 11:45UTAL. O'Brien0.18 xG
3rd 19:07UTAC. KellerEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

UTAVAN

25Shots on goal23

2.99Expected goals1.63

48Shot attempts46

205v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play2/4

15Hits21

15Blocked shots10

12Penalty minutes12

10Giveaways17

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 2.99 xGVAN 1.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA25 on goal, 7 scored

VAN22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	3	1	4	3	0	1	+3	0	17:21	3:28
D. Guenther	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	17:03	3:19
L. Crouse	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	15:09	0:58
L. Cooley	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	14:45	3:25
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	19:44	3:22
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	11:13	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	10:32	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	1	0	1	1	6	1	+1	0	10:21	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:00	0:59
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	15:53	0:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	14:00	1:02
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:53	1:08
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	25:01	3:30
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	20:02	0:07
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:45	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	4	17:27	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:54	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	4	19:31	0:57

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	23	19	4	.826	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Karlsson	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	0	2	14:04	0:39
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-3	0	19:57	4:38
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-4	0	17:53	4:16
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:36	3:53
L. Ohgren	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:29	1:03
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	14:06	0:06
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	18:58	4:14
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	15:58	1:46
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	12:08	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:52	0:00
T. Mueller	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:21	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	3	2	2	-2	2	26:59	4:02
V. Mancini	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:21	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	2	13:00	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	21:54	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	20:11	1:17
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	19:14	1:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	24	18	6	.750	58:21	Loss
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz11:57C. Keller11:31L. Crouse9:36

Line 2A. Kerfoot12:01M. Carcone11:45J. Peterka12:10

Line 3D. Guenther13:10K. Yamamoto11:13L. Cooley10:45

Line 4L. O'Brien10:21K. Stenlund11:39B. Tanev10:32

Pair 1M. Sergachev16:49S. Durzi16:46

Pair 2J. Marino16:32N. Schmidt14:57

Pair 3I. Cole13:39N. DeSimone13:57

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser12:44M. Rossi12:18L. Ohgren11:59

Line 2T. Blueger11:49L. Karlsson12:11M. Sasson10:47

Line 3J. DeBrusk11:15E. Pettersson11:52D. O'Connor11:37

Line 4A. Räty10:25T. Mueller9:21E. Kane11:06

Pair 1F. Hronek18:24Z. Buium16:36

Pair 2M. Pettersson16:57T. Willander15:10

Pair 3V. Mancini12:45P. Joseph12:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	UTA 3.5, VAN 3.0	UTA 7, VAN 4
Total goals	6.5	11
Shots on goal	UTA 27.8, VAN 25.6	UTA 25, VAN 23
Win chance	UTA 58%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	2	0.91	2	33%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.6	3	1.06	4	29%	3
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	3	0.88	1	26%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	3	0.49	1	24%	1
VAN E. Kane	2.1	1	0.46	0	23%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	2	0.67	1	29%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	1	0.79	2	28%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.8	0	0.43	0	19%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	1	0.43	0	19%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.7	3	0.58	2	8%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	3	0.50	2	19%	2
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	3	0.76	1	13%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	2	0.48	2	21%	1
UTA J. Peterka	1.6	2	0.56	0	21%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	0	0.70	0	25%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.6	1	0.35	1	16%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.5	2	0.42	1	14%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	2	0.60	1	21%	1
VAN T. Willander	1.0	1	0.36	0	7%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.0	2	0.37	0	8%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	0	0.31	0	16%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.0	0	0.38	0	12%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.30	0	4%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.30	1	7%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.0	2	0.30	0	5%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.9	2	0.25	0	12%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	1	0.26	1	6%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	0	0.28	0	11%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	1	0.15	1	6%	1
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.9	2	0.31	1	13%	1
VAN P. Joseph	0.8	0	0.14	1	3%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.24	1	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.7	1	0.15	1	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.6	1	0.14	1	7%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.6	0	0.38	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.