VGK beat UTA 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.92 expected goals to 1.82. VGK outshot UTA 35 to 19. N. Hanifin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Roy had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Hill stopped 16 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 11:52UTAL. Cooley0.11 xG
- 2nd 12:00UTAI. Cole0.01 xG
- 2nd 15:06VGKP. Dorofeyev0.07 xG
- 2nd 19:59VGKN. Hanifin0.46 xG
- 3rd 5:37VGKW. Karlsson0.04 xG
- 3rd 13:10UTAA. Kerfoot0.08 xG
- OT 2:15VGKB. Howden0.20 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
UTA 1.82 xGVGK 3.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 35 | 31 | 4 | .886 | 62:15 | OT loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 1:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:25 | 1:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:31 | 1:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 24:56 | 1:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 1:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA 3.0, VGK 3.7 | UTA 3, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | UTA 27.2, VGK 31.8 | UTA 19, VGK 35 |
| Win chance | VGK 61% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 4 | 1.08 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 1 | 0.89 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.4 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 0 | 0.98 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.9 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.8 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 6 | 0.55 | 3 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 4 | 0.41 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 6 | 0.53 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.