VAN beat OTT 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.61 expected goals to 3.11. OTT outshot VAN 29 to 21. J. DeBrusk led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. DeBrusk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. K. Lankinen stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 18:36VANJ. DeBruskPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 3:41OTTB. TkachukPP0.48 xG
- 2nd 9:23VANT. Blueger0.12 xG
- 2nd 13:01VANJ. DeBrusk0.25 xG
- 3rd 8:41VANK. Sherwood0.59 xG
- 3rd 16:29OTTC. GirouxPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:16OTTT. Stützle0.21 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.61 xGOTT 3.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:30 | 5:48 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 5:48 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 5:45 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 5:44 |
| T. Blueger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:10 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:24 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:22 | 2:26 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:13 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 2:25 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8:38 | 0:12 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 27:38 | 5:50 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 1:20 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 2:15 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:07 | 0:15 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:50 | 0:24 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5:12 | 1:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 58:20 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Giroux | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:05 | 4:58 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 5:37 |
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:38 | 3:52 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 3:36 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 21 | 15:48 | 3:46 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 1:37 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 14:46 | 1:54 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 3:38 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 1:55 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 28:37 | 4:47 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:46 | 2:44 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:06 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 56:37 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 3.0, OTT 3.0 | VAN 4, OTT 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 25.4, OTT 30.5 | VAN 21, OTT 29 |
| Win chance | OTT 50% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.6 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 2 | 1.10 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 2 | 0.99 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.95 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.1 | 5 | 0.84 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.1 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 5 | 0.59 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.3 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.