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Game Recap
VAN3
TOR0
VAN beat TOR 3-0, with the chances close: 1.39 expected goals to 1.54. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Lankinen stopped 20 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 0:31VANB. Boeser0.03 xG
- 2nd 18:12VANQ. Hughes0.03 xG
- 3rd 0:47VANK. Sherwood0.09 xG
Team Stats
VANTOR
18Shots on goal20
1.39Expected goals1.54
43Shot attempts55
165v5 shots on goal18
0/0Power play0/3
22Hits11
21Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes0
15Giveaways14
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 1.39 xGTOR 1.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 23:52 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 23:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| G. Brisebois | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 20 | 20 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:31 | Win |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:22 | 4:16 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 4:31 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:25 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:42 | 4:30 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:38 | 1:21 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:24 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:28 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:02 |
| M. Pacioretty | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:35 |
| D. Kampf | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:07 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:07 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:07 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:33 | 4:02 |
| O. Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:46 | 1:58 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:07 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hildeby | 18 | 16 | 3 | .889 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.8, TOR 3.4 | VAN 3, TOR 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 25.2, TOR 28.6 | VAN 18, TOR 20 |
| Win chance | TOR 59% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 3.7 | 2 | 1.14 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 3.1 | 2 | 1.04 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.8 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 0 | 0.95 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.4 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 2 | 1.28 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.0 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.77 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| TOR M. Pacioretty | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| TOR M. Knies | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TOR O. Ekman-Larsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.5 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR D. Kampf | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TOR C. Dewar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TOR C. Timmins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN G. Brisebois | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.