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Game Recap
VAN2
Final/OTWed, Dec 18, 2024Every game that night
UTA3

UTA beat VAN 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.70 expected goals to 3.30. C. Keller led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Q. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
VAN01102
UTA00213
  1. 2nd 12:39VAND. HeinenPP0.33 xG
  2. 3rd 2:45VAND. Joshua0.28 xG
  3. 3rd 9:02UTAC. Keller0.37 xG
  4. 3rd 15:30UTAD. GuentherPP0.05 xG
  5. OT 4:48UTAM. Sergachev0.15 xG

Team Stats

VANUTA
26Shots on goal31
3.30Expected goals3.70
58Shot attempts64
175v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play1/3
33Hits22
20Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways25
5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VAN 3.30 xGUTA 3.70 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTVAN goal, 12:39VAN goal, 2:45UTA goal, 9:02UTA goal, 15:30UTA goal, 4:48

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VAN26 on goal, 2 scored
UTA31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. HeinenLW1012220213:401:07
T. BluegerC0111210013:260:00
D. JoshuaC1011210010:180:00
C. GarlandRW000422-1021:244:13
J. MillerC000321-1021:004:37
E. PetterssonC0002010020:441:18
B. BoeserRW0001200018:134:13
J. DeBruskLW0001100018:084:38
K. SherwoodLW0000700016:081:37
P. SuterC0001310014:311:38
M. SassonC0003100012:460:00
N. HoglanderLW0000000010:160:00
Q. HughesD022600+1026:195:32
C. SoucyD000143-1022:160:00
T. MyersD0000140221:590:19
N. JuulsenD0000210018:520:00
V. DesharnaisD0000230018:100:00
E. BrannstromD000000-1211:520:23
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
T. Demko31283.90364:48OT loss
K. Lankinen000–0:00

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KellerRW112300+1019:333:00
L. CooleyC022411+1018:592:46
N. SchmaltzC011300+1019:562:48
D. GuentherRW1014210017:483:04
B. HaytonC011000+1014:420:00
K. StenlundC0001010015:070:00
M. MaccelliLW000200-1014:381:36
J. McBainC0000520213:560:00
M. CarconeLW0002200013:521:22
N. BjugstadC000141-1013:191:01
A. KerfootC0004110013:100:00
L. CrouseLW0001400012:361:34
M. SergachevD101404+2027:023:15
O. MaattaD000014-1023:580:17
J. VälimäkiD000000+1021:070:00
I. ColeD000001-1220:340:08
M. KesselringD0001200217:110:59
V. KolyachonokD0001010011:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Vejmelka26242.92364:48Win
J. Stauber000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVAN 3.1, UTA 3.2VAN 2, UTA 3
Total goals6.35
Shots on goalVAN 25.8, UTA 28.3VAN 26, UTA 31
Win chanceUTA 52%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
UTA C. Keller2.530.94231%1
VAN Q. Hughes2.360.90212%0
VAN C. Garland2.340.71024%0
UTA D. Guenther2.340.79127%1
VAN J. DeBrusk2.010.58027%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.030.84125%0
UTA L. Cooley2.040.71222%0
VAN B. Boeser1.910.71028%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.820.79027%0
VAN J. Miller1.830.85026%0
UTA M. Sergachev1.740.68113%1
VAN K. Sherwood1.600.43019%0
VAN P. Suter1.610.43020%0
UTA B. Hayton1.500.40115%0
UTA M. Carcone1.520.34018%0
UTA M. Kesselring1.410.3809%0
UTA N. Bjugstad1.410.37016%0
UTA L. Crouse1.410.37018%0
UTA M. Maccelli1.220.50013%0
UTA K. Stenlund1.210.24013%0
UTA A. Kerfoot1.140.43014%0
VAN T. Myers1.100.2604%0
VAN C. Soucy1.110.2207%0
VAN D. Heinen1.120.36116%1
VAN T. Blueger1.010.34110%0
UTA I. Cole1.000.2305%0
UTA J. McBain0.900.42016%0
UTA O. Maatta0.900.2707%0
VAN N. Hoglander0.900.25014%0
UTA J. Välimäki0.900.2405%0
VAN E. Brannstrom0.900.2103%0
VAN M. Sasson0.830.36011%0
VAN N. Juulsen0.700.1102%0
VAN D. Joshua0.710.33115%1
UTA V. Kolyachonok0.610.1806%0
VAN V. Desharnais0.500.1201%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.