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Game Recap
VAN1
VGK3
VGK beat VAN 3-1, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 2.62. B. Howden led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Blueger had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Hill stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 8:15VANT. Blueger0.50 xG
- 2nd 17:35VGKA. Pietrangelo0.02 xG
- 3rd 3:44VGKW. Karlsson0.27 xG
- 3rd 19:10VGKB. HowdenEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
VANVGK
20Shots on goal21
2.62Expected goals2.95
51Shot attempts49
175v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/1
21Hits16
16Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways17
5Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VAN 2.62 xGVGK 2.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:22 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 1:25 |
| T. Blueger | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:08 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:37 | 2:39 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:20 | 2:08 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 2:40 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:25 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:15 | 2:10 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:18 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:11 | 3:11 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:45 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:49 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 59:41 | Loss |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:44 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:15 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:31 | 0:43 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:28 | 1:19 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:18 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:17 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:07 | 0:42 |
| T. Laczynski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:13 | 0:41 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:10 | 0:45 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:08 | 1:16 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN 2.7, VGK 3.5 | VAN 1, VGK 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | VAN 25.0, VGK 31.0 | VAN 20, VGK 21 |
| Win chance | VGK 62% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.5 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.5 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 2 | 0.99 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 1.9 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 4 | 0.33 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 0.7 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.