VGK beat ANA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.95 expected goals to 1.80. VGK outshot ANA 33 to 20. S. Theodore led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Theodore had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. I. Samsonov stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 16:26VGKW. Karlsson0.52 xG
- 2nd 6:38VGKS. Theodore0.34 xG
- 2nd 18:01ANAJ. LaCombe0.03 xG
- 3rd 3:05VGKA. Holtz0.14 xG
- 3rd 19:16VGKS. TheodoreEN0.64 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 4.95 xGANA 1.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:16 | 3:39 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:03 | 3:39 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:21 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 2:20 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:19 | 1:39 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:22 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:29 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:34 | 3:03 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:01 | 1:31 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:57 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:22 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:54 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:06 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:51 | 1:04 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:29 | 1:38 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:25 | 1:05 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:56 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:55 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:08 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:37 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 1:23 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.3, ANA 2.8 | VGK 4, ANA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 31.3, ANA 28.3 | VGK 33, ANA 20 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.6 | 5 | 1.14 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.3 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.4 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.2 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 5 | 0.70 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 2.1 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.9 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.8 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA C. Fowler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.