Game Recap: VGK 3, ANA 4 (OT), November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

ANA4

ANA beat VGK 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 3.06. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Gudas had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. L. Dostal stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	3	0	0	0	3
ANA	2	1	0	1	4

1st 3:25VGKS. Theodore0.03 xG
1st 4:37VGKB. Bowman0.17 xG
1st 7:43ANAJ. LaCombe0.05 xG
1st 8:17ANAO. Zellweger0.08 xG
1st 17:59VGKT. HertlPP0.12 xG
2nd 13:50ANAT. Terry0.19 xG
OT 3:57ANAC. Gauthier0.05 xG

Team Stats

VGKANA

32Shots on goal33

3.06Expected goals3.11

56Shot attempts77

255v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play0/2

15Hits19

20Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes10

22Giveaways16

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.06 xGANA 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK32 on goal, 3 scored

ANA33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	2	21:45	3:48
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:21	3:47
B. Bowman	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:03	3:50
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	15:51	0:54
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	21:31	3:26
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:43	3:52
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	15:57	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	15:56	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:47	0:56
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:24	0:58
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	10:16	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:23	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	0	25:29	1:20
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	21:01	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	-1	0	22:59	0:59
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	21:23	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	14:04	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	33	29	4	.879	63:49	OT loss
C. Lindbom	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	21:52	0:53
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	6	1	0	+2	2	19:52	1:28
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	22:58	0:53
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:31	0:53
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:13	1:28
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	15:59	0:53
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	15:15	1:07
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:37	0:21
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	13:19	1:07
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:49	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	6:53	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	6:11	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	1	2	4	1	4	+2	0	27:07	1:14
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	25:19	0:21
O. Zellweger	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	2	14:23	1:07
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	21:15	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	20:19	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	13:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	32	29	3	.906	63:57	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1B. Saad14:45B. Howden14:02R. Smith11:51

Line 2M. Marner13:13P. Dorofeyev14:50T. Hertl12:42

Line 3I. Barbashev12:49J. Eichel13:43B. Bowman12:13

Line 4C. Sissons9:16C. Reinhardt7:23K. Kolesar10:16

Pair 1B. McNabb19:14S. Theodore18:19

Pair 2N. Hanifin17:38Z. Whitecloud18:06

Pair 3B. Hutton11:59K. Korczak13:11

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier16:03B. Sennecke15:26L. Carlsson15:50

Line 2T. Terry14:46M. McTavish15:16C. Kreider13:20

Line 3R. Strome12:12F. Vatrano13:16A. Killorn12:09

Line 4R. Johnston6:47N. Nesterenko6:09J. Harkins6:05

Pair 1R. Gudas17:35P. Mintyukov18:55

Pair 2J. LaCombe18:25J. Trouba18:57

Pair 3O. Zellweger11:47D. Helleson12:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, ANA 2.8	VGK 3, ANA 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	VGK 30.9, ANA 26.6	VGK 32, ANA 33
Win chance	VGK 59%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.4	2	1.11	2	32%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.2	6	0.80	2	28%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.1	2	0.69	0	33%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.7	3	0.80	1	29%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.3	3	0.79	2	26%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	2.2	1	0.50	0	10%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	4	0.69	1	9%	1
VGK B. Bowman	2.1	2	0.68	1	24%	1
ANA C. Kreider	2.1	2	0.65	0	33%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.1	1	0.79	1	26%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	3	1.15	0	28%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	3	0.29	1	8%	1
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	0	0.54	0	20%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.7	1	0.35	0	18%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	0	0.49	0	21%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.6	3	0.39	0	19%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	4	0.46	2	10%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	1.6	2	0.61	1	21%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.45	0	17%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	2	0.30	1	7%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.5	1	0.24	0	6%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	2	0.61	1	22%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.43	0	20%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.3	2	0.42	0	13%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.28	0	5%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.1	0	0.29	0	12%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	0	0.28	0	7%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.22	1	6%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	2	0.25	0	10%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.8	4	0.16	0	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.7	2	0.21	0	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	1	0.12	0	7%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.13	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.