Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
VGK3
FinalSun, Feb 1, 2026Every game that night
ANA4

ANA beat VGK 4-3, with the chances close: 2.07 expected goals to 2.53. VGK outshot ANA 31 to 23. C. Kreider led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Dostal stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VGK0123
ANA1214
  1. 1st 13:21ANAC. Kreider0.23 xG
  2. 2nd 1:10ANAC. Kreider0.08 xG
  3. 2nd 4:32ANAC. GauthierPP0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 9:47VGKM. Marner0.13 xG
  5. 3rd 10:40VGKI. Barbashev0.30 xG
  6. 3rd 18:53ANAR. PoehlingEN0.55 xG
  7. 3rd 19:54VGKT. Hertl0.21 xG

Team Stats

VGKANA
31Shots on goal23
2.53Expected goals2.07
61Shot attempts48
295v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play1/2
17Hits28
10Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways15
3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.53 xGANA 2.07 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdANA goal, 13:21ANA goal, 1:10ANA goal, 4:32VGK goal, 9:47VGK goal, 10:40ANA goal, 18:53VGK goal, 19:54

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK30 on goal, 3 scored
ANA22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. StoneRW0221010023:293:09
M. MarnerRW1014100022:152:49
J. EichelC0114210020:363:11
T. HertlC1011200218:353:03
P. DorofeyevRW0112000018:212:21
I. BarbashevLW1013110016:550:57
A. HoltzRW011210+1010:450:00
K. KolesarRW0001500015:100:00
B. BowmanRW000111-1012:550:50
R. SmithRW0002010010:540:00
J. RondbjergRW000100008:200:00
T. LaczynskiC000000027:350:49
R. AnderssonD0003020023:091:19
N. HanifinD0001220022:280:00
S. TheodoreD000200+1022:140:59
J. LauzonD000011+1017:390:00
B. HuttonD000100-1014:110:12
K. KorczakD000210-1013:470:21
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill22193.86458:21Loss
A. Schmid000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. PoehlingC112101+3015:440:00
C. KreiderLW202200+3014:211:34
T. TerryRW022100+2013:550:56
B. SenneckeRW011110-1018:481:25
C. GauthierLW101310-1013:591:30
M. GranlundC000003-1020:091:26
A. KillornLW000222-1019:180:55
M. McTavishC000310-2014:460:47
J. VielLW000230-2013:090:00
J. HarkinsC0000600011:320:46
T. WasheC0001310011:180:00
R. JohnstonLW0000310010:520:00
J. TroubaD0223210025:130:45
J. LaCombeD0110040023:561:36
P. MintyukovD0110000021:040:05
I. MooreD0002000017:540:00
R. GudasD0001630215:560:00
O. ZellwegerD0001000214:060:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal31283.90360:00Win
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone17:49M. Marner16:33P. Dorofeyev14:34
Line 2I. Barbashev15:58J. Eichel14:39B. Bowman12:00
Line 3T. Hertl14:06K. Kolesar13:54J. Rondbjerg8:20
Line 4R. Smith10:41T. Laczynski6:46A. Holtz10:37
Pair 1N. Hanifin21:07R. Andersson20:28
Pair 2S. Theodore18:44J. Lauzon16:34
Pair 3B. Hutton13:52K. Korczak13:18

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund15:41B. Sennecke16:16A. Killorn15:23
Line 2M. McTavish13:53J. Viel13:02C. Gauthier12:16
Line 3C. Kreider12:22R. Poehling13:15T. Terry12:34
Line 4R. Johnston10:52J. Harkins10:46T. Washe9:17
Pair 1J. Trouba20:19J. LaCombe20:12
Pair 2P. Mintyukov17:58I. Moore17:24
Pair 3R. Gudas14:37O. Zellweger13:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVGK 3.3, ANA 3.1VGK 3, ANA 4
Total goals6.47
Shots on goalVGK 27.9, ANA 27.3VGK 31, ANA 23
Win chanceVGK 52%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.441.19132%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.330.85130%1
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.820.69132%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.610.97129%0
VGK T. Hertl2.510.77128%1
VGK R. Andersson2.230.48012%0
ANA M. Granlund2.100.87023%0
ANA M. McTavish2.130.67024%0
VGK M. Stone2.111.02229%0
VGK S. Theodore2.120.69012%0
ANA T. Terry2.010.76225%0
VGK M. Marner1.941.06127%1
ANA C. Kreider1.920.66233%2
VGK N. Hanifin1.910.4509%0
ANA A. Killorn1.920.52022%0
ANA J. Trouba1.830.3528%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.700.59111%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.530.63122%1
ANA O. Zellweger1.410.2707%0
VGK B. Hutton1.310.2607%0
ANA R. Poehling1.310.51217%1
ANA J. Viel1.320.21012%0
VGK B. Bowman1.310.44015%0
VGK R. Smith1.320.40016%0
VGK J. Rondbjerg1.210.1707%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.200.1905%0
VGK K. Kolesar1.110.33012%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.100.3518%0
VGK A. Holtz1.020.23111%0
ANA R. Gudas0.910.2003%0
VGK K. Korczak0.920.2504%0
ANA J. Harkins0.900.1709%0
VGK T. Laczynski0.900.1809%0
ANA T. Washe0.810.19012%0
ANA I. Moore0.720.1703%0
ANA R. Johnston0.500.1805%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.