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Game Recap
VGK3
FinalSun, May 10, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night
ANA4

ANA beat VGK 4-3, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 1.71. C. Gauthier led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. Dostal stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VGK1113
ANA2114
  1. 1st 8:43ANAB. SenneckePP0.05 xG
  2. 1st 10:22VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.07 xG
  3. 1st 15:25ANAM. Granlund0.14 xG
  4. 2nd 4:04VGKB. Howden0.18 xG
  5. 2nd 17:58ANAA. KillornPP0.16 xG
  6. 3rd 3:43ANAI. Moore0.00 xG
  7. 3rd 18:56VGKT. Hertl0.04 xG

Team Stats

VGKANA
21Shots on goal23
1.71Expected goals2.35
42Shot attempts57
125v5 shots on goal16
1/3Power play2/4
27Hits34
14Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways10
7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 1.71 xGANA 2.35 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 8:43VGK goal, 10:22ANA goal, 15:25VGK goal, 4:04ANA goal, 17:58ANA goal, 3:43VGK goal, 18:56

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK21 on goal, 3 scored
ANA23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MarnerRW033200+1024:084:13
J. EichelC022010+1022:104:12
W. KarlssonC011200+2018:470:55
P. DorofeyevRW101400+1018:324:08
B. HowdenC101140+1016:430:59
T. HertlC101110+1013:094:08
I. BarbashevLW0003320015:120:57
N. DowdC000120-2014:460:00
C. SissonsC0001420010:570:00
C. SmithRW000021-1210:550:00
K. KolesarRW000060-108:220:00
B. SaadLW000010-107:200:00
S. TheodoreD000302+1024:503:46
N. HanifinD000112-2022:561:21
R. AnderssonD000001-2219:090:56
B. McNabbD0002120217:050:00
D. CoghlanD000010+1215:430:00
B. HuttonD000002+1014:560:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart23194.82657:43Loss
A. Hill000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW033430+1012:393:55
A. KillornLW1122300020:193:41
B. SenneckeRW1122100215:533:53
M. GranlundC101250+1019:292:56
J. VielLW011261+1012:560:00
T. WasheC000062-1016:330:00
T. TerryRW000000-2016:172:44
L. CarlssonC000020-1016:012:45
C. KreiderLW000010-1015:002:51
R. JohnstonLW0000210212:590:00
R. PoehlingC000100+1011:390:00
M. McTavishC000300+1011:253:43
O. ZellwegerD011003+2011:520:00
I. MooreD101312+108:270:00
J. LaCombeD000022-2026:534:13
J. TroubaD000310-1026:110:00
J. CarlsonD0001100221:392:24
P. MintyukovD0000020018:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal21183.85759:53Win
V. Husso000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1W. Karlsson13:56B. Howden13:29M. Marner14:42
Line 2I. Barbashev14:15J. Eichel13:07P. Dorofeyev12:07
Line 3N. Dowd13:21C. Smith10:48C. Sissons10:50
Line 4B. Saad7:20T. Hertl6:44K. Kolesar7:06
Pair 1N. Hanifin17:05R. Andersson15:30
Pair 2B. Hutton14:49D. Coghlan14:28
Pair 3B. McNabb14:20S. Theodore15:23

ANA

Line 1T. Terry13:00L. Carlsson12:43C. Kreider11:43
Line 2A. Killorn12:31M. Granlund13:05B. Sennecke12:00
Line 3J. Viel12:13R. Johnston12:17T. Washe13:50
Line 4M. McTavish7:42C. Gauthier8:03R. Poehling8:05
Pair 1J. LaCombe20:58J. Trouba20:39
Pair 2J. Carlson17:46P. Mintyukov14:28
Pair 3O. Zellweger10:24I. Moore7:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVGK 3.3, ANA 3.2VGK 3, ANA 4
Total goals6.57
Shots on goalVGK 27.5, ANA 29.3VGK 21, ANA 23
Win chanceVGK 52%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.201.23232%0
ANA C. Gauthier2.940.68329%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.600.79027%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.640.71132%1
ANA T. Terry2.400.81026%0
VGK M. Marner2.121.12329%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.120.57221%1
VGK R. Andersson2.000.51013%0
VGK S. Theodore2.030.79015%0
ANA J. Carlson1.910.66011%0
ANA A. Killorn1.820.50222%1
VGK T. Hertl1.810.56121%1
ANA J. Trouba1.830.3207%0
VGK W. Karlsson1.720.54120%0
ANA C. Kreider1.700.63029%0
VGK D. Coghlan1.700.1904%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.730.74025%0
ANA M. Granlund1.720.64119%1
VGK N. Hanifin1.610.4809%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.600.63010%0
ANA M. McTavish1.530.45017%0
VGK B. McNabb1.520.3207%0
VGK B. Howden1.410.52123%1
VGK B. Saad1.300.31015%0
ANA R. Poehling1.310.45016%0
VGK C. Sissons1.210.31012%0
ANA J. Viel1.220.22110%0
VGK B. Hutton1.100.2206%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.100.2807%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.000.1915%0
VGK N. Dowd1.010.31014%0
VGK C. Smith1.000.23010%0
ANA T. Washe0.800.1608%0
VGK K. Kolesar0.800.2309%0
ANA I. Moore0.730.1213%1
ANA R. Johnston0.500.1705%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.