Game Recap: VGK 3, BUF 4 (SO), March 15, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

Final/SOSat, Mar 15, 2025Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat VGK 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.34. BUF outshot VGK 37 to 19. B. Byram led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Dahlin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. U. Luukkonen stopped 16 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
VGK	1	1	1	0	3
BUF	0	1	2	1	4

1st 12:07VGKB. Howden0.16 xG
2nd 12:06VGKP. Dorofeyev0.22 xG
2nd 12:13BUFR. McLeod0.05 xG
3rd 9:53BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.17 xG
3rd 17:27VGKJ. Eichel0.59 xG
3rd 19:46BUFR. Dahlin0.04 xG

Team Stats

VGKBUF

19Shots on goal37

2.34Expected goals2.64

48Shot attempts70

185v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play1/2

22Hits36

14Blocked shots13

12Penalty minutes22

19Giveaways23

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.34 xGBUF 2.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK18 on goal, 3 scored

BUF37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	23:04	1:21
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	22:28	1:23
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:19	0:39
B. Howden	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	5	15:10	0:00
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:06	1:21
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	14:31	1:21
T. Pearson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	12:00	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:02	0:37
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:28	0:35
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:56	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:54	0:39
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	5	12:34	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:58	0:39
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	28:05	1:21
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	22:16	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	19:50	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	17:01	0:04
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	15:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	37	34	3	.919	65:00	OT loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	-2	0	22:57	2:05
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	22:05	0:29
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+2	0	20:12	2:07
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	23:16	2:05
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:18	0:12
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	5	17:09	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	3	7	0	-1	0	14:52	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	12:21	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17	12:09	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	9:57	0:12
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:04	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:08	1:48
B. Byram	D	0	2	2	0	2	0	+2	0	23:54	0:10
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	5	1	2	-2	0	26:48	2:13
J. Bryson	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:30	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	19:48	0:04
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	18:16	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	17:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	19	16	3	.842	63:33	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamVictor Olofsson VGK Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.4, BUF 2.8	VGK 3, BUF 4
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	VGK 29.7, BUF 26.2	VGK 19, BUF 37
Win chance	VGK 60%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	2	1.10	1	31%	1
BUF T. Thompson	2.9	5	0.87	1	36%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	1	0.69	1	31%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	1	0.76	0	28%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	0	0.77	1	27%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.2	5	0.67	1	14%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.0	2	0.40	0	19%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.9	2	0.97	1	28%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	1	0.58	0	13%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	4	0.60	1	22%	1
VGK B. Saad	1.8	0	0.51	0	23%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	2	0.48	1	9%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	0	0.53	0	18%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.5	3	0.44	0	17%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.5	3	0.46	0	21%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	1	0.66	1	23%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	1	0.38	0	14%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	3	0.53	1	19%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.4	1	0.41	1	17%	1
BUF O. Power	1.4	1	0.35	0	6%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.3	1	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	2	0.33	1	13%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.3	0	0.46	0	16%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.2	0	0.29	0	12%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	2	0.37	0	14%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	0	0.39	2	10%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.30	0	5%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.28	0	8%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.28	0	10%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	0	0.26	0	3%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.8	2	0.18	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	3	0.16	0	7%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	1	0.18	0	11%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.7	3	0.16	0	8%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	2	0.15	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.