Game Recap: VGK 2, BUF 3, March 3, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalTue, Mar 3, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

BUF beat VGK 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.04 expected goals to 4.28. R. Dahlin led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Quinn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Lyon stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	2	0	2
BUF	1	2	0	3

1st 4:02BUFJ. Zucker0.17 xG
2nd 0:46BUFO. Power0.03 xG
2nd 5:44BUFT. Thompson0.12 xG
2nd 6:50VGKI. Barbashev0.64 xG
2nd 8:27VGKP. Dorofeyev0.18 xG

Team Stats

VGKBUF

29Shots on goal28

4.28Expected goals3.04

58Shot attempts57

285v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/1

28Hits15

10Blocked shots10

2Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways14

5Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.28 xGBUF 3.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK28 on goal, 2 scored

BUF28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:19	1:08
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:48	1:00
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	19:04	0:51
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:41	1:02
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	22:11	1:08
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:15	0:57
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:01	0:52
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	11:47	1:04
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	7	1	-2	0	11:40	0:01
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:01	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:34	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	8:14	0:02
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	24:29	0:48
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	20:36	0:04
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	19:10	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	18:16	0:59
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:26	0:04
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	15:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	28	25	3	.893	58:29	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:07	1:13
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	19:36	0:47
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:51	0:47
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:19	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:36	1:13
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	20:04	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:32	1:13
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:35	1:13
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	15:05	0:47
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:46	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:57	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	8:34	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	1	3	1	+2	0	25:50	1:13
O. Power	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	0	22:54	0:47
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	25:15	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	22:42	0:47
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:19	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	10:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Marner18:27P. Dorofeyev18:17R. Smith17:10

Line 2I. Barbashev16:39J. Eichel17:43B. Bowman15:47

Line 3C. Sissons11:14C. Reinhardt11:01R. Lavoie8:34

Line 4B. Saad8:12T. Hertl9:12K. Kolesar11:39

Pair 1B. McNabb19:13S. Theodore20:52

Pair 2K. Korczak17:22N. Hanifin18:28

Pair 3R. Andersson17:17J. Lauzon15:18

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson18:27P. Krebs18:27A. Tuch17:25

Line 2J. Norris14:16J. Doan15:12N. Ostlund14:19

Line 3R. McLeod13:40J. Quinn14:18J. Zucker12:23

Line 4T. Kozak8:00Z. Benson9:06B. Malenstyn7:40

Pair 1B. Byram19:29O. Power21:07

Pair 2M. Samuelsson22:45R. Dahlin23:34

Pair 3M. Kesselring11:19Z. Metsa10:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, BUF 3.1	VGK 2, BUF 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	VGK 28.9, BUF 25.6	VGK 29, BUF 28
Win chance	VGK 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	2	1.03	1	40%	1
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	2	1.04	1	30%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	4	0.63	1	31%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	2	0.71	0	27%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	1	0.83	2	17%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	1	0.85	1	31%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	0	0.97	0	26%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	5	0.65	0	20%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	1	0.42	0	10%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	1	0.63	0	22%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	2	0.64	1	24%	1
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	1	0.58	1	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	3	0.38	0	8%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	1	0.35	0	18%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	0	0.49	0	15%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	3	0.60	1	22%	1
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.38	1	7%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.41	1	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.4	2	0.61	0	26%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	1	0.48	0	16%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.67	1	19%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	4	0.40	0	8%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.2	2	0.18	0	4%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.48	0	12%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.1	1	0.31	0	12%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	2	0.23	0	5%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	1	0.42	1	17%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.0	3	0.17	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.39	0	11%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	1.0	0	0.10	0	8%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	1.0	1	0.19	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.17	0	10%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	1	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.