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Game Recap
VGK4
FinalSun, Nov 8, 2026Every game that night
BUF1

VGK beat BUF 4-1, with the chances close: 3.64 expected goals to 3.69. T. Hertl led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). W. Karlsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Hill stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VGK0224
BUF0011
  1. 2nd 12:17VGKM. MarnerSH0.58 xG
  2. 2nd 13:43VGKJ. Eichel0.18 xG
  3. 3rd 4:26BUFB. Malenstyn0.53 xG
  4. 3rd 5:43VGKT. Hertl0.23 xG
  5. 3rd 10:00VGKT. Hertl0.12 xG

Team Stats

VGKBUF
26Shots on goal29
3.64Expected goals3.69
51Shot attempts77
205v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play0/3
20Hits10
23Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways10
5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.64 xGBUF 3.69 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdVGK goal, 12:17VGK goal, 13:43BUF goal, 4:26VGK goal, 5:43VGK goal, 10:00

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK26 on goal, 4 scored
BUF28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MarnerRW112300+2018:352:11
I. BarbashevLW022021+3214:451:09
T. HertlC202440+2014:183:28
J. EichelC1015000017:522:51
M. StoneRW0002020017:202:14
W. KarlssonC000502+1016:271:40
T. ConnellyLW000102-1015:151:37
N. DowdC0000210014:100:02
B. HowdenC0001210213:450:00
B. BowmanRW0000100013:322:50
V. OlofssonLW000200+1012:542:19
M. GatcombC000010009:510:02
S. TheodoreD011002+3024:182:54
B. McNabbD000225+3022:080:02
R. AnderssonD0000010020:442:14
J. LauzonD000132+1020:220:00
N. HanifinD0000220016:410:02
D. CoghlanD000012-1211:030:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill29281.96660:00Win
C. Hart000–0:00

BUF Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. MalenstynLW101100+1013:130:00
T. KozakC011120+1011:330:00
Z. BensonLW000301-2022:123:35
T. ThompsonC000200-2019:043:51
N. OstlundC000301-2018:233:38
P. KrebsC000211-1016:500:00
J. QuinnRW000200-2016:433:29
J. DoanRW0002000015:522:26
J. ZuckerLW000010-2013:522:25
J. NorrisC000220-1012:572:22
J.KulichC000120-1010:292:09
S. CarrickC000000+109:230:00
M. SamuelssonD011403+1024:050:00
R. DahlinD000201-3223:143:18
O. PowerD000111-3022:042:42
C. TimminsD000002+1217:460:00
O. ZellwegerD000210-1215:350:05
Z. MetsaD0001000011:380:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ellis26224.84660:00Loss
U. Luukkonen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone13:29T. Connelly13:38J. Eichel13:21
Line 2W. Karlsson12:44M. Marner13:55B. Howden12:24
Line 3I. Barbashev13:36V. Olofsson10:35T. Hertl10:50
Line 4N. Dowd11:53M. Gatcomb9:49B. Bowman10:08
Pair 1B. McNabb20:08S. Theodore19:22
Pair 2R. Andersson18:28J. Lauzon16:23
Pair 3N. Hanifin12:39D. Coghlan11:03

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs16:48Z. Benson16:53T. Thompson15:11
Line 2J. Doan13:01N. Ostlund13:26J. Quinn13:14
Line 3J. Zucker11:27J. Norris10:35J.Kulich8:20
Line 4S. Carrick9:03B. Malenstyn9:52T. Kozak8:32
Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:37R. Dahlin18:21
Pair 2Z. Metsa11:38O. Zellweger14:18
Pair 3C. Timmins15:26O. Power17:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 22 overs hit (55%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BUF T. Thompson3.5+120-1402Under
VGK J. Eichel2.5-110-1055Over
BUF J. Quinn2.5+104-1202Under
VGK M. Marner2.5+146-1803Over
BUF R. Dahlin2.5+115-1252Under
BUF Z. Benson2.5+148-1703Over
VGK B. Howden1.5+110-1351Under
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+145-1820Under
BUF J. Doan1.5-104-1152Over
BUF J. Norris1.5+121-1452Over
BUF J. Zucker1.5+115-1250Under
BUF J.Kulich1.5+110-1301Under
BUF M. Samuelsson1.5+150-1854Over
VGK M. Stone1.5-135+1222Over
BUF N. Ostlund1.5-135+1103Over
BUF O. Power1.5+135-1551Under
BUF O. Zellweger1.5+103-1202Over
VGK S. Theodore1.5+105-1200Under
VGK T. Connelly1.5+120-1401Under
VGK T. Hertl1.5-160+1364Over
VGK V. Olofsson1.5-125+1052Over
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-125+1105Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVGK 3.2, BUF 3.3VGK 4, BUF 1
Total goals6.55
Shots on goalVGK 26.9, BUF 27.9VGK 26, BUF 29
Win chanceBUF 53%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BUF T. Thompson3.220.95038%0
VGK J. Eichel2.751.02128%1
BUF J. Quinn2.520.75028%0
BUF R. Dahlin2.520.82018%0
BUF Z. Benson2.330.82026%0
VGK M. Marner2.231.02227%1
VGK T. Hertl2.040.61225%2
VGK M. Stone2.020.89031%0
VGK W. Karlsson1.950.56022%0
BUF N. Ostlund1.830.63022%0
BUF J. Doan1.820.48021%0
VGK V. Olofsson1.820.43020%0
VGK T. Connelly1.710.53021%0
VGK S. Theodore1.700.53110%0
BUF O. Zellweger1.620.34010%0
VGK R. Andersson1.600.3809%0
BUF J.Kulich1.610.38019%0
VGK B. Howden1.610.53026%0
BUF J. Zucker1.500.43019%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.400.52219%0
BUF O. Power1.410.5209%0
VGK D. Coghlan1.400.1605%0
BUF M. Samuelsson1.340.4017%0
BUF J. Norris1.220.42020%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.200.2905%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.100.16010%0
VGK B. McNabb1.120.3005%0
VGK B. Bowman1.100.36015%0
BUF P. Krebs1.020.45013%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.010.1404%0
BUF C. Timmins0.900.2203%0
BUF S. Carrick0.900.1607%0
BUF B. Malenstyn0.810.1918%1
VGK N. Dowd0.600.1908%0
BUF T. Kozak0.610.1517%0
BUF Z. Metsa0.610.1303%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.