Game Recap: VGK 3, CHI 5, January 18, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VGK3

FinalSat, Jan 18, 2025Every game that night

CHI5

CHI beat VGK 5-3, with the chances close: 3.16 expected goals to 3.17. VGK outshot CHI 35 to 23. T. Hertl led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Eichel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. P. Mrazek stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	2	0	3
CHI	3	1	1	5

1st 9:29VGKV. Olofsson0.14 xG
1st 16:00CHIL. Reichel0.15 xG
1st 16:40CHIT. BertuzziPP0.13 xG
1st 19:42CHIT. Hall0.50 xG
2nd 8:10VGKT. Hertl0.16 xG
2nd 14:42VGKT. HertlPP0.06 xG
2nd 18:58CHIS. Jones0.06 xG
3rd 4:08CHIT. BertuzziPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

VGKCHI

35Shots on goal23

3.17Expected goals3.16

77Shot attempts44

285v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play2/3

29Hits29

12Blocked shots23

13Penalty minutes23

12Giveaways11

9Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.17 xGCHI 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK35 on goal, 3 scored

CHI22 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hertl	C	2	1	3	2	0	2	0	2	20:00	4:31
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	0	19:16	4:38
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:55	0:38
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	20:05	4:17
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	19:30	3:49
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:55	1:06
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	16:51	0:00
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:24	0:24
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	12:30	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	10:45	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:27	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6:13	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	2	2	3	1	1	+1	0	26:38	4:19
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	2	21:01	0:17
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:53	0:36
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	20:27	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:26	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	7	10:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Samsonov	23	18	5	.783	59:17	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	2	0	2	4	2	3	+1	0	18:08	1:21
T. Teravainen	C	0	2	2	3	1	1	-1	0	16:54	1:21
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	3	1	3	+1	0	20:16	1:21
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	1	4	2	+1	0	16:34	0:11
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:23	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	14:22	0:42
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	11:44	0:11
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	11:42	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:36	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	19	7:58	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:36	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:06	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	2	3	3	3	2	0	0	23:23	1:15
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	24:27	0:50
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:12	0:11
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:17	0:17
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:26	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	14:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	35	32	3	.914	60:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.4, CHI 2.4	VGK 3, CHI 5
Total goals	5.8	8
Shots on goal	VGK 31.7, CHI 25.1	VGK 35, CHI 23
Win chance	VGK 65%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	6	1.13	1	32%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	5	0.64	0	31%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	3	0.90	1	26%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	2	0.67	3	25%	2
VGK W. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.64	0	23%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	2	1.03	0	31%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	2.0	2	0.58	1	26%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.0	0	0.44	1	19%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	3	0.73	2	10%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	4	0.62	2	25%	2
CHI S. Jones	1.9	3	0.44	3	9%	1
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.9	1	0.51	1	8%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.42	0	20%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	2	0.49	0	10%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.7	2	0.50	1	19%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	3	0.64	2	21%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.5	1	0.45	1	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.63	0	23%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.39	0	19%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	2	0.44	0	16%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.4	0	0.30	1	11%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.3	1	0.28	1	14%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	0	0.29	0	4%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.39	0	18%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.2	1	0.35	0	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.25	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	1	0.18	0	3%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.1	2	0.16	0	4%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.1	0	0.25	0	6%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	2	0.28	1	10%	1
CHI L. Crevier	1.0	1	0.16	0	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.21	0	6%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	1	0.23	1	8%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.17	0	5%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.