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Game Recap
VGK3
DAL4
DAL beat VGK 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.64 expected goals to 2.84. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Oettinger stopped 18 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| DAL | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 4:04VGKJ. EichelPP0.13 xG
- 1st 6:19DALR. HintzPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 7:31DALJ. Robertson0.58 xG
- 2nd 8:57VGKS. TheodorePP0.16 xG
- 2nd 16:18DALJ. Benn0.08 xG
- 2nd 17:54DALJ. Robertson0.15 xG
- 3rd 10:35VGKJ. Eichel0.27 xG
Team Stats
VGKDAL
21Shots on goal27
2.84Expected goals3.64
54Shot attempts66
155v5 shots on goal25
2/3Power play1/2
18Hits21
24Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways10
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.84 xGDAL 3.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:21 | 2:53 |
| J. Eichel | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:10 | 2:53 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 18:16 | 2:53 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 2:53 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Brisson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Laczynski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:54 | 2:53 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 58:23 | Loss |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:43 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:59 | 1:47 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:50 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:25 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:27 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:29 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:01 | 1:43 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:55 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:23 | 1:56 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:31 | 1:17 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:33 | 0:28 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.7, DAL 3.1 | VGK 3, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 27.4, DAL 29.2 | VGK 21, DAL 27 |
| Win chance | DAL 57% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.1 | 3 | 0.93 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.6 | 2 | 0.97 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.6 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.5 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.8 | 1 | 0.81 | 3 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.8 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Brisson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK T. Laczynski | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.