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Game Recap
VGK1
DAL2
DAL beat VGK 2-1, with the chances close: 2.79 expected goals to 2.24. VGK outshot DAL 27 to 16. B. McNabb had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Oettinger stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Team Stats
VGKDAL
27Shots on goal16
2.24Expected goals2.79
55Shot attempts38
205v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play1/5
32Hits25
10Blocked shots17
10Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways11
2Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.24 xGDAL 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:51 | 4:53 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:03 | 1:36 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 4:26 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 4:25 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 4:37 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:10 | 3:39 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:23 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:28 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:32 | 0:03 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:56 | 2:31 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:29 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:40 | 1:30 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 6:53 |
| J. Benn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 7:17 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 6:23 |
| O. Bäck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:04 | 7:32 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 2:03 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:06 | 2:33 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 1:32 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:34 | 2:29 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:35 | 6:28 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 22:34 | 1:15 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:15 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 59:53 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev13:13J. Eichel13:24B. Bowman11:26
Line 2M. Marner10:18P. Dorofeyev11:04B. Howden10:49
Line 3R. Smith10:41C. Sissons10:01T. Hertl11:43
Line 4N. Dowd9:48K. Kolesar8:53C. Smith8:23
Pair 1N. Hanifin16:42R. Andersson15:32
Pair 2B. McNabb14:03S. Theodore16:09
Pair 3J. Lauzon11:23K. Korczak12:03
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson12:35W. Johnston13:40M. Bourque15:03
Line 2J. Hryckowian11:11M. Bunting11:01A. Erne9:59
Line 3C. Blackwell9:27O. Bäck10:15A. Hyry10:22
Line 4M. Duchene8:31S. Steel8:56J. Benn7:55
Pair 1T. Harley17:46N. Lundkvist13:53
Pair 2E. Lindell15:47M. Heiskanen14:10
Pair 3T. Myers11:49L. Bichsel13:15
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.7, DAL 3.1 | VGK 1, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 25.0, DAL 24.5 | VGK 27, DAL 16 |
| Win chance | DAL 56% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.1 | 4 | 1.01 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.0 | 1 | 1.11 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.6 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bunting | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.7 | 0 | 0.90 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK C. Smith | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Dowd | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.