Game Recap: VGK 3, DAL 2, March 22, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalSun, Mar 22, 2026Every game that night

DAL2

VGK beat DAL 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 2.14. VGK outshot DAL 33 to 15. R. Andersson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Hill stopped 13 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	1	1	3
DAL	2	0	0	2

1st 4:01VGKB. McNabb0.21 xG
1st 10:55DALW. JohnstonPP0.20 xG
1st 16:48DALJ. Hryckowian0.38 xG
2nd 9:10VGKI. BarbashevPP0.15 xG
3rd 16:22VGKR. Smith0.36 xG

Team Stats

VGKDAL

33Shots on goal15

4.23Expected goals2.14

71Shot attempts37

265v5 shots on goal13

1/4Power play1/3

26Hits24

12Blocked shots25

6Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways11

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 4.23 xGDAL 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK33 on goal, 3 scored

DAL14 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	5	1	3	+1	0	22:14	5:39
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:25	4:56
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:26	2:34
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:48	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	14:13	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	13:13	2:31
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	12:48	1:45
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	19:01	5:43
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:32	5:00
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:41	5:40
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:13	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:20	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:28	1:52
B. McNabb	D	1	0	1	2	3	2	+1	0	19:12	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	0	21:50	1:50
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:58	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	16:00	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	15	13	2	.867	60:00	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:38	4:02
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	18:32	3:40
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:10	0:10
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	14:52	1:17
C. Blackwell	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	13:54	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:06	4:02
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	-2	0	16:35	1:05
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	13:40	2:46
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:51	2:08
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:18	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:43	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	0	2	26:08	3:15
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	24:47	1:52
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	21:37	1:05
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	15:50	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:56	0:13
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	33	30	3	.909	57:28	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1R. Smith13:33P. Dorofeyev14:16M. Marner13:37

Line 2I. Barbashev12:52J. Eichel11:57M. Stone10:45

Line 3K. Kolesar12:56B. Howden10:22T. Hertl9:01

Line 4N. Dowd7:53C. Smith9:14C. Sissons7:43

Pair 1B. McNabb15:00S. Theodore17:47

Pair 2R. Andersson16:28J. Lauzon12:36

Pair 3K. Korczak13:31N. Hanifin14:29

DAL

Line 1J. Robertson14:29W. Johnston13:18M. Bourque14:44

Line 2S. Steel12:38J. Hryckowian12:09C. Blackwell11:18

Line 3M. Duchene12:17M. Bunting10:06J. Benn9:08

Line 4A. Hyry7:53O. Bäck7:31N. Bastian8:43

Pair 1T. Harley18:22N. Lundkvist15:42

Pair 2E. Lindell14:56M. Heiskanen16:40

Pair 3I. Lyubushkin11:29L. Bichsel12:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 2.7, DAL 2.9	VGK 3, DAL 2
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	VGK 25.3, DAL 23.4	VGK 33, DAL 15
Win chance	DAL 54%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	1	1.14	0	39%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	2	0.95	0	28%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	2	0.62	1	29%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	2	0.89	1	34%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	1	0.62	0	24%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.9	3	0.53	0	20%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	5	0.92	1	24%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.7	1	0.71	1	11%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	5	0.33	0	9%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.7	1	0.80	0	23%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.7	1	0.48	1	9%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	1	0.82	1	27%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.6	1	0.47	0	19%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.6	0	0.31	0	7%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	0	0.68	0	22%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.5	0	0.51	0	11%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	3	0.52	1	19%	1
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	2	0.20	1	5%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.2	2	0.33	1	14%	1
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	1	0.40	1	16%	1
DAL A. Hyry	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.1	1	0.33	1	16%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	3	0.22	1	9%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.40	1	12%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.23	1	10%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	1	0.12	0	3%	0
DAL E. Lindell	0.9	0	0.32	0	6%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.22	1	9%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	0	0.19	0	10%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.7	1	0.16	0	3%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	2	0.22	0	10%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.6	0	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.5	1	0.19	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.5	1	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.