Game Recap: VGK 4, DET 3 (OT), March 4, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK4

Final/OTWed, Mar 4, 2026Every game that night

DET3

VGK beat DET 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 2.97. M. Marner led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Hill stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	0	2	1	4
DET	3	0	0	0	3

1st 1:50VGKR. Smith0.09 xG
1st 5:58DETE. Finnie0.06 xG
1st 15:15DETS. Edvinsson0.24 xG
1st 16:14DETA. DeBrincat0.07 xG
3rd 11:37VGKI. Barbashev0.12 xG
3rd 16:36VGKM. Marner0.26 xG
OT 2:11VGKT. HertlPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

VGKDET

25Shots on goal26

3.25Expected goals2.97

57Shot attempts50

215v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play0/4

19Hits11

10Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways13

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.25 xGDET 2.97 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK24 on goal, 4 scored

DET24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	2	3	1	1	0	+2	0	19:59	1:46
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	-1	4	16:33	2:19
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:30	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:48	1:46
R. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:12	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	23:45	2:19
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	17:53	1:46
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:23	0:14
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:13	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:06	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:22	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	7:51	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	0	0	23:28	0:33
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	2	24:13	0:33
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:30	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:48	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	16:46	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	26	23	3	.885	62:11	Win
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	20:39	5:37
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	21:18	5:33
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	18:54	3:09
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:22	0:09
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	2	21:32	4:25
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	20:57	5:38
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	16:09	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:01	2:23
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:03	0:12
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:05	0:18
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:39	2:13
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:03	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	1	1	2	3	1	4	+1	2	24:03	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	3	2	2	+1	0	28:40	5:47
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9:37	2:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	22:40	0:17
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:59	0:16
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:55	2:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	25	21	4	.840	62:08	OT loss
S. Cossa	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel16:56I. Barbashev17:25B. Bowman15:28

Line 2M. Marner13:17P. Dorofeyev13:08R. Smith8:47

Line 3K. Kolesar11:25C. Smith10:11C. Sissons11:50

Line 4B. Saad8:19T. Hertl13:33C. Reinhardt7:48

Pair 1B. McNabb16:11S. Theodore19:24

Pair 2N. Hanifin19:05K. Korczak13:32

Pair 3R. Andersson18:10J. Lauzon12:41

DET

Line 1D. Larkin15:47M. Rasmussen15:13P. Kane14:46

Line 2A. DeBrincat13:47L. Raymond14:35A. Copp13:40

Line 3E. Finnie12:24M. Appleton11:28M. Kasper11:21

Line 4J. Compher9:47D. Shine8:03J. Riemsdyk7:26

Pair 1S. Edvinsson22:47M. Seider19:41

Pair 2B. Chiarot20:59J. Bernard-Docker16:18

Pair 3A. Johansson11:31A. Sandin-Pellikka7:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.0, DET 3.0	VGK 4, DET 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	VGK 26.5, DET 25.9	VGK 25, DET 26
Win chance	DET 52%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	3	0.92	2	34%	1
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	4	0.96	0	28%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.8	4	0.92	0	34%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	2	0.60	1	30%	0
DET P. Kane	2.2	1	0.79	0	23%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	2	0.61	2	24%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.1	2	0.95	1	27%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.9	1	0.45	0	18%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	1	0.90	3	25%	1
DET M. Seider	1.8	3	0.60	1	9%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.8	1	0.38	2	10%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	2	0.56	1	10%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	1	0.34	1	7%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	3	0.57	1	21%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.5	1	0.41	1	17%	1
DET A. Copp	1.5	2	0.56	1	17%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.5	1	0.29	0	15%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	2	0.46	0	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.22	0	7%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.2	1	0.42	0	16%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	0	0.31	0	14%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	3	0.38	2	10%	1
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	0	0.16	0	4%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	1	0.31	0	11%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	0	0.37	0	14%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.1	3	0.25	1	11%	1
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.28	0	11%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.9	1	0.17	0	8%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.18	0	5%	0
DET D. Shine	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.7	1	0.23	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.