FLA beat VGK 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 2.48. FLA outshot VGK 49 to 26. S. Reinhart led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Mikkola had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| FLA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 19:27VGKT. Pearson0.18 xG
- 2nd 1:09FLAS. Reinhart0.03 xG
- 2nd 14:15VGKK. Kolesar0.13 xG
- 2nd 19:20FLAS. BennettPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 7:30VGKB. Howden0.15 xG
- 3rd 12:43FLAE. Luostarinen0.23 xG
- OT 4:43FLAG. Forsling0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.48 xGFLA 3.21 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:11 | 0:29 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:21 | 1:42 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 1:31 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:51 | 1:31 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:31 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:29 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:29 |
| B. Brisson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:51 | 0:18 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:19 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:37 | 1:41 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 49 | 45 | 4 | .918 | 64:43 | OT loss |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:55 | 2:17 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 2:17 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 2:17 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:04 | 2:17 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:49 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:49 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:49 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 26:37 | 0:49 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 28:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:35 | 2:17 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:49 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 64:43 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.9, FLA 3.1 | VGK 3, FLA 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.9, FLA 30.9 | VGK 26, FLA 49 |
| Win chance | FLA 54% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.1 | 6 | 0.91 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 5 | 0.95 | 3 | 38% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.7 | 5 | 0.69 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 3 | 0.63 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 6 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 1.8 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.5 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 5 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. Brisson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 0.9 | 6 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.