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Game Recap
VGK3
NJD1
VGK beat NJD 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 1.42. VGK outshot NJD 40 to 15. N. Roy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Hill stopped 14 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 3:09VGKN. Roy0.13 xG
- 2nd 11:18VGKS. Theodore0.04 xG
- 3rd 4:06VGKJ. Eichel0.06 xG
- 3rd 15:43NJDO. PalatPP0.16 xG
Team Stats
VGKNJD
40Shots on goal15
3.90Expected goals1.42
71Shot attempts40
335v5 shots on goal13
0/5Power play1/1
10Hits22
7Blocked shots13
2Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways13
5Takeaways0
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.90 xGNJD 1.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:06 | 7:25 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:07 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:47 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:13 | 2:30 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 6:43 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 7:14 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 7:23 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:55 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:07 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:43 | 7:10 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:46 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:49 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 15 | 14 | 1 | .933 | 59:54 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:10 |
| O. Palat | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:10 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:10 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 20:45 | 0:10 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:10 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 12:32 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 2.8, NJD 2.7 | VGK 3, NJD 1 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 27.3, NJD 27.2 | VGK 40, NJD 15 |
| Win chance | VGK 52% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.9 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 6 | 1.01 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.5 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.2 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.