Game Recap: VGK 3, NJD 0, December 5, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalFri, Dec 5, 2025Every game that night

NJD0

VGK beat NJD 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.96 expected goals to 1.78. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. Hamilton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Schmid stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	0	2	3
NJD	0	0	0	0

1st 19:47VGKS. Theodore0.03 xG
3rd 15:36VGKT. HertlPP0.16 xG
3rd 18:36VGKI. BarbashevPP0.59 xG

Team Stats

VGKNJD

25Shots on goal24

2.96Expected goals1.78

46Shot attempts61

225v5 shots on goal19

2/2Power play0/2

21Hits15

23Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways15

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.96 xGNJD 1.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK23 on goal, 3 scored

NJD23 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	3	1	1	+1	0	20:23	2:37
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	18:35	2:37
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	17:28	2:37
I. Barbashev	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:11	1:12
T. Hertl	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	16:01	1:25
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:24	1:25
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:37	0:00
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	15:23	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	14:33	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:28	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	4	0	3	+1	0	23:12	1:12
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+1	2	22:01	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	23:21	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:42	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:34	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	24	24	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Vikman	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	4	1	1	-1	4	20:38	3:14
T. Meier	RW	1	1	0	0	0	19:32	3:16
A. Gritsyuk	RW	1	1	0	0	0	18:30	1:47
J. Bratt	LW	1	1	0	-1	0	18:25	3:12
D. Mercer	C	4	0	1	0	0	17:35	2:11
C. Brown	RW	0	0	1	0	0	15:34	0:00
C. Glass	C	1	0	0	0	0	15:07	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	3	2	0	0	0	13:46	0:48
O. Palat	LW	1	0	2	-1	0	11:06	0:44
P. Cotter	LW	0	3	0	0	0	10:58	0:00
A. Crookshank	C	0	1	1	0	0	10:36	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	1	0	0	0	10:17	0:00
L. Hughes	D	2	0	0	0	0	22:53	0:48
D. Hamilton	D	5	1	0	-1	0	22:31	2:10
J. Siegenthaler	D	1	2	2	-1	0	21:13	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	0	19:29	0:01
S. Nemec	D	0	0	2	0	0	18:32	1:49
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	0	11:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	25	22	3	.880	59:14	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1B. Bowman15:37J. Eichel15:57I. Barbashev14:59

Line 2M. Marner14:01B. Howden14:02M. Stone13:28

Line 3B. Saad13:22T. Hertl13:50P. Dorofeyev13:13

Line 4R. Smith9:31K. Kolesar10:09C. Reinhardt9:33

Pair 1B. McNabb19:30S. Theodore19:11

Pair 2N. Hanifin21:03Z. Whitecloud16:47

Pair 3B. Hutton13:18K. Korczak15:34

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier16:38T. Meier15:30S. Noesen12:58

Line 2A. Gritsyuk15:57C. Brown13:40C. Glass15:07

Line 3O. Palat10:22J. Bratt13:44D. Mercer13:53

Line 4P. Cotter10:58A. Crookshank10:36L. Glendening8:25

Pair 1J. Siegenthaler20:30D. Hamilton18:51

Pair 2B. Dillon17:34L. Hughes20:12

Pair 3S. Nemec16:43C. White11:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, NJD 2.8	VGK 3, NJD 0
Total goals	5.8	3
Shots on goal	VGK 28.8, NJD 26.7	VGK 25, NJD 24
Win chance	VGK 55%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	3	1.03	2	31%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.2	1	0.80	0	33%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	1	0.59	1	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	5	0.52	0	13%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	1	0.99	0	26%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	1	0.68	1	27%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	4	0.89	0	31%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.2	1	0.41	0	17%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	4	0.63	1	8%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	2	0.44	1	9%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	0	0.86	1	26%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	4	0.56	0	25%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.8	2	0.57	0	21%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	2	0.49	0	6%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.7	2	0.96	1	25%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	0	0.42	0	11%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	3	0.58	1	22%	1
VGK B. Saad	1.4	2	0.32	0	16%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	1	0.28	0	12%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	3	0.38	0	18%	0
NJD A. Crookshank	1.3	0	0.21	0	10%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	0	0.22	0	5%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.2	1	0.34	0	14%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.2	3	0.31	0	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.25	0	4%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	0	0.25	0	14%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.12	0	7%	0
NJD C. White	0.5	0	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.