Game Recap: VGK 1, OTT 7, January 25, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK1

FinalSun, Jan 25, 2026Every game that night

OTT7

OTT beat VGK 7-1, with the chances close: 3.31 expected goals to 2.72. OTT outshot VGK 32 to 20. S. Halliday led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. M. Sogaard stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	0	1	1
OTT	1	3	3	7

1st 9:25OTTF. Zetterlund0.04 xG
2nd 5:51OTTD. Cozens0.16 xG
2nd 6:07OTTJ. Spence0.01 xG
2nd 17:50OTTS. Halliday0.14 xG
3rd 1:22OTTD. Cozens0.13 xG
3rd 2:05OTTS. Halliday0.08 xG
3rd 3:56OTTN. Jensen0.01 xG
3rd 15:05VGKR. Andersson0.21 xG

Team Stats

VGKOTT

20Shots on goal32

2.72Expected goals3.31

49Shot attempts73

165v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play0/1

20Hits34

16Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways9

10Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.72 xGOTT 3.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK20 on goal, 1 scored

OTT32 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	4	5	1	-1	0	17:40	2:54
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:38	3:23
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:59	2:54
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:41	2:57
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:36	0:29
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:35	2:56
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	13:34	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:10	0:27
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-4	0	12:45	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	12:23	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-4	0	12:04	0:00
J. Rondbjerg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	11:38	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	0	19:35	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	22:00	0:30
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	21:17	0:26
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	20:33	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	15:37	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	0	15:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	32	25	7	.781	59:59	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	3	3	3	5	1	+2	0	14:48	0:55
S. Halliday	C	2	1	3	3	1	1	+3	0	7:39	0:31
D. Cozens	C	2	0	2	5	1	0	+3	0	13:45	0:48
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:39	0:00
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	17:30	0:11
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+3	2	16:13	0:50
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	12:26	1:01
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:38	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	16:31	1:05
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:33	0:09
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	15:04	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	11:10	0:30
T. Chabot	D	0	2	2	3	1	4	+3	0	22:55	1:07
T. Kleven	D	0	2	2	2	4	1	+2	0	19:46	0:51
J. Spence	D	1	0	1	1	3	1	+2	0	18:56	0:58
N. Jensen	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+3	0	18:24	0:01
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	20:21	1:03
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Sogaard	20	19	1	.950	60:00	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1M. Stone14:12J. Eichel15:49I. Barbashev17:07

Line 2T. Laczynski13:34B. Bowman12:43C. Reinhardt12:13

Line 3M. Marner14:53P. Dorofeyev14:44T. Hertl14:15

Line 4K. Kolesar11:11J. Rondbjerg11:07R. Smith11:56

Pair 1S. Theodore21:17J. Lauzon19:48

Pair 2R. Andersson19:09N. Hanifin20:25

Pair 3B. Hutton14:25K. Korczak14:17

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson15:24T. Stützle15:43C. Giroux14:48

Line 2M. Amadio16:56S. Pinto15:21N. Cousins15:04

Line 3D. Cozens12:57B. Tkachuk13:53R. Greig14:28

Line 4L. Eller10:40F. Zetterlund11:25S. Halliday7:08

Pair 1N. Jensen18:23T. Chabot21:20

Pair 2J. Spence17:58T. Kleven18:26

Pair 3J. Sanderson16:23A. Zub16:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael Amadio OTT Faces VGK, his team until May 20241 SOG
BirthdayNoah Hanifin VGK Turns 29 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.3, OTT 2.8	VGK 1, OTT 7
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	VGK 26.0, OTT 25.6	VGK 20, OTT 32
Win chance	VGK 57%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.3	3	0.74	3	29%	0
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	2	1.25	0	33%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	0	0.74	0	33%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	4	0.82	1	29%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	0	0.90	1	27%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	2	1.11	0	31%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	5	0.58	2	20%	2
VGK R. Andersson	1.9	2	0.51	1	12%	1
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	1	0.72	0	24%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	2	0.60	0	11%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.8	1	1.14	0	28%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	1	0.66	0	10%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	0	0.53	1	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.7	0	0.46	0	9%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.6	3	0.45	2	10%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	1	0.42	1	15%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.4	2	0.59	0	18%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	0	0.64	0	22%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.4	2	0.32	1	14%	1
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.44	0	17%	0
VGK J. Rondbjerg	1.1	0	0.18	0	7%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.1	1	0.44	0	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.1	1	0.36	0	16%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.0	3	0.23	0	6%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.19	0	4%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.0	3	0.31	3	8%	2
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	2	0.16	2	3%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	0	0.31	0	11%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.0	1	0.26	1	4%	1
OTT A. Zub	0.9	1	0.24	0	5%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	0	0.27	0	4%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	3	0.24	0	9%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	1	0.21	1	4%	1

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.