Game Recap: VGK 3, PHI 2 (OT), December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

VGK3

Final/OTThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

PHI2

VGK beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.90 expected goals to 2.02. M. Stone led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Stone had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Schmid stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
VGK	1	1	0	1	3
PHI	1	1	0	0	2

1st 6:07VGKZ. Whitecloud0.20 xG
1st 16:11PHIT. Zegras0.15 xG
2nd 12:53VGKM. StonePP0.26 xG
2nd 16:08PHIN. Juulsen0.11 xG
OT 2:47VGKM. Stone0.26 xG

Team Stats

VGKPHI

22Shots on goal19

2.90Expected goals2.02

46Shot attempts49

175v5 shots on goal17

1/2Power play0/3

23Hits25

16Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways9

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.90 xGPHI 2.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK20 on goal, 3 scored

PHI19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:23	2:47
M. Stone	RW	2	0	2	5	0	4	+1	0	18:57	2:28
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	2	17:13	2:35
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	16:33	0:13
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	11:45	0:01
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:37	2:45
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:25	2:36
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	16:33	0:20
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:14	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:04	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	9:26	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	19:23	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	22:47	0:03
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	21:42	0:12
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	20:43	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:54	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	19	17	2	.895	62:47	Win
C. Hart	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	0	2	2	0	1	2	+1	0	17:33	0:03
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	23:05	4:39
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	2	12:41	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:43	4:30
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	19:41	3:06
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:02	3:01
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:10	1:22
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:05	2:47
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:47	2:51
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	12:20	0:01
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:30	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:15	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	26:25	2:25
N. Juulsen	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:07	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	22:36	0:02
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:26	3:26
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	19:29	1:47
T. Murchison	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	22	19	3	.864	62:44	OT loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl14:15P. Dorofeyev14:38R. Smith11:44

Line 2J. Eichel13:15I. Barbashev15:03B. Bowman11:41

Line 3M. Stone13:35M. Marner14:00B. Howden14:06

Line 4C. Sissons10:34C. Reinhardt11:04K. Kolesar9:26

Pair 1B. McNabb17:16S. Theodore17:23

Pair 2B. Hutton15:03K. Korczak17:54

Pair 3Z. Whitecloud16:47N. Hanifin18:01

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny15:04T. Zegras17:27C. Dvorak15:12

Line 2B. Brink15:01N. Cates14:15N. Grebenkin12:19

Line 3S. Couturier12:39M. Michkov10:53O. Tippett10:30

Line 4G. Hathaway7:57R. Abols9:12C. Grundstrom12:41

Pair 1N. Seeler20:10T. Sanheim21:24

Pair 2J. Drysdale17:40E. Andrae16:53

Pair 3N. Juulsen13:08T. Murchison13:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCarter Hart VGK Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, PHI 2.5	VGK 3, PHI 2
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	VGK 26.9, PHI 24.6	VGK 22, PHI 19
Win chance	VGK 59%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	2	1.19	2	33%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	1	0.68	1	32%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	1	0.74	0	29%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	0	0.60	0	24%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	2	0.77	0	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	1	0.68	1	22%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.0	2	0.70	0	11%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	5	1.00	2	27%	2
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	3	0.61	0	22%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	2	0.46	0	11%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	0	0.54	0	16%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.7	0	1.08	0	27%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.6	1	0.23	1	13%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	4	0.50	0	18%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.6	0	0.53	1	19%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	0	0.49	2	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	0	0.46	0	16%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	1	0.61	1	22%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	1	0.38	1	9%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	2	0.43	0	20%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	1	0.24	0	4%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.2	0	0.37	0	15%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	1	0.20	0	3%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.2	1	0.23	0	6%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	0	0.33	0	7%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	0	0.17	0	9%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	1	0.21	1	6%	1
VGK K. Korczak	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.21	0	8%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.6	1	0.18	0	8%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	1	0.21	0	9%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	2	0.08	1	1%	1

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.