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Game Recap
VGK0
PIT5
PIT beat VGK 5-0, with the chances close: 2.48 expected goals to 1.98. B. Kindel led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Smith had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Silovs stopped 22 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 14:56PITB. Kindel0.05 xG
- 2nd 5:47PITE. Chinakhov0.11 xG
- 2nd 9:34PITB. RustPP0.33 xG
- 2nd 15:06PITR. RakellPP0.55 xG
- 3rd 14:59PITJ. Brazeau0.03 xG
Team Stats
VGKPIT
22Shots on goal22
1.98Expected goals2.48
55Shot attempts46
205v5 shots on goal14
0/2Power play2/4
28Hits19
14Blocked shots18
11Penalty minutes9
16Giveaways23
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 1.98 xGPIT 2.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:35 | 2:59 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:34 | 2:47 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:47 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:51 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:47 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:13 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:52 | 1:13 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 1:13 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:06 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:01 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:07 | 1:09 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:11 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 3:54 |
| B. Kindel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:23 | 1:33 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 13:01 | 1:22 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 3:54 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 3:55 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:35 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:36 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:04 | 3:56 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:58 | 3:48 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:40 | 1:40 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:07 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev14:45J. Eichel13:54M. Stone6:06
Line 2T. Hertl14:28K. Kolesar12:51B. Saad14:33
Line 3M. Marner13:43P. Dorofeyev14:43R. Smith12:44
Line 4C. Sissons9:52C. Reinhardt10:18B. Bowman13:31
Pair 1N. Hanifin17:55R. Andersson16:18
Pair 2B. McNabb17:18S. Theodore18:54
Pair 3K. Korczak16:02J. Lauzon14:45
PIT
Line 1B. Lizotte13:18N. Acciari13:27C. Dewar11:27
Line 2T. Novak13:32E. Chinakhov13:12E. Malkin14:09
Line 4B. Kindel12:22J. Brazeau11:39A. Mantha10:08
Pair 2R. Shea15:54C. Clifton17:15
Pair 3E. Karlsson16:32P. Wotherspoon16:45
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, PIT 3.0 | VGK 0, PIT 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 26.8, PIT 26.7 | VGK 22, PIT 22 |
| Win chance | VGK 53% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.2 | 0 | 1.08 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.3 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.3 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 1.9 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT S. Girard | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.