Game Recap: VGK 3, STL 4, January 2, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK3

FinalFri, Jan 2, 2026Every game that night

STL4

STL beat VGK 4-3, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 1.78. A. Toropchenko led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hofer stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	1	1	3
STL	1	2	1	4

1st 10:12VGKK. Kolesar0.10 xG
1st 10:39STLA. Toropchenko0.20 xG
2nd 5:39STLJ. Faulk0.09 xG
2nd 6:37STLO. Sundqvist0.28 xG
2nd 9:10VGKM. Stone0.23 xG
3rd 8:21VGKP. Dorofeyev0.10 xG
3rd 18:27STLB. Schenn0.22 xG

Team Stats

VGKSTL

25Shots on goal19

1.78Expected goals2.50

47Shot attempts46

215v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/2

21Hits19

14Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways18

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 1.78 xGSTL 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK25 on goal, 3 scored

STL19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	17:55	3:41
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:12	3:40
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:27	0:19
B. Howden	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:01	0:22
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	12:00	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	-2	0	19:34	3:38
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	2	19:01	3:28
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:06	3:38
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:08	0:21
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:23	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:23	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	20:33	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	26:17	0:32
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:29	0:04
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	+2	0	19:37	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	11:56	0:17
J. Megna	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	19	15	4	.789	58:36	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	15:04	1:42
A. Toropchenko	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	13:28	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	11:31	0:02
O. Sundqvist	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	11:24	0:03
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	16:44	2:18
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:13	1:47
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:05	1:48
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:23	2:08
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	15:11	2:10
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:38	1:19
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:16	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:02	1:48
J. Faulk	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	-2	2	21:00	2:05
T. Tucker	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	17:07	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	25:23	0:55
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	22:37	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:17	1:55
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	25	22	3	.880	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel13:11I. Barbashev14:47B. Bowman14:08

Line 2T. Hertl12:04P. Dorofeyev12:08R. Smith11:26

Line 3B. Saad12:06K. Kolesar11:39C. Sissons12:34

Line 4M. Stone11:33B. Howden12:24M. Marner13:43

Pair 1K. Korczak18:40J. Lauzon17:14

Pair 2N. Hanifin22:44Z. Whitecloud20:17

Pair 3B. Hutton11:39J. Megna10:43

STL

Line 1R. Thomas15:32J. Kyrou13:01J. Neighbours14:30

Line 2B. Schenn14:25J. Snuggerud13:26P. Buchnevich11:10

Line 3J. Berggren13:19O. Stenberg12:52D. Dvorsky12:14

Line 4M. Joseph11:02O. Sundqvist9:26A. Toropchenko10:43

Pair 1P. Broberg20:32C. Parayko17:56

Pair 2J. Faulk18:33T. Tucker15:41

Pair 3C. Fowler15:01M. Kessel13:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.1, STL 2.7	VGK 3, STL 4
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	VGK 28.1, STL 23.5	VGK 25, STL 19
Win chance	VGK 56%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.2	3	1.11	0	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	2	0.64	1	31%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	2.3	2	0.57	0	11%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	1	0.64	0	25%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	2	0.94	1	28%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.1	1	0.62	0	26%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	3	1.08	0	27%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	1	0.71	2	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.45	1	10%	1
VGK B. Saad	1.6	1	0.33	0	17%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	0	0.93	0	23%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.6	1	0.29	0	8%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.5	2	0.45	1	17%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	1	0.59	0	21%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.4	1	0.52	1	19%	1
VGK B. Bowman	1.3	1	0.42	1	15%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	1	0.42	1	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.3	1	0.35	0	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	3	0.55	0	23%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.40	0	16%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	1	0.30	0	15%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.2	2	0.34	0	8%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	1	0.38	0	16%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.43	0	7%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	2	0.25	2	11%	1
STL O. Stenberg	1.1	0	0.43	0	12%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.1	3	0.30	1	4%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.0	0	0.29	2	10%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.24	1	10%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	2	0.17	1	5%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	1	0.14	0	3%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.33	2	11%	1
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	1	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	1	0.23	1	9%	1
VGK J. Megna	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.