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Game Recap
VGK2
FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night
STL6

STL beat VGK 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 2.71. J. Barron led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). A. Holtz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Hofer stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
VGK0112
STL2136
  1. 1st 10:00STLP. BuchnevichPP0.58 xG
  2. 1st 13:49STLJ. Barron0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 5:38VGKB. Howden0.38 xG
  4. 2nd 8:30STLM. McTavish0.08 xG
  5. 3rd 4:08VGKJ. Eichel0.12 xG
  6. 3rd 8:21STLJ. Snuggerud0.05 xG
  7. 3rd 10:29STLD. Holloway0.22 xG
  8. 3rd 16:05STLD. HollowayPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

VGKSTL
29Shots on goal31
2.71Expected goals3.54
63Shot attempts52
285v5 shots on goal28
0/0Power play2/2
36Hits13
11Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes0
19Giveaways18
3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.71 xGSTL 3.54 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdSTL goal, 10:00STL goal, 13:49VGK goal, 5:38STL goal, 8:30VGK goal, 4:08STL goal, 8:21STL goal, 10:29STL goal, 16:05

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK28 on goal, 2 scored
STL31 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
I. BarbashevLW0110600018:520:00
J. EichelC1014100016:460:00
B. HowdenC1014200015:530:00
A. HoltzRW0115100014:040:00
M. StoneRW0003200016:460:00
W. KarlssonC0001000016:340:00
B. BowmanRW000000-1014:560:00
T. HertlC0002420014:200:00
T. ConnellyLW0000100013:530:00
N. DowdC000031-2011:560:00
M. GatcombC000231-2011:560:00
R. LavoieC000160-1011:510:00
B. McNabbD0113210022:470:00
N. HanifinD011011-1221:090:00
S. TheodoreD0003000022:370:00
R. AnderssonD000003-2019:480:00
J. LauzonD000041-1218:150:00
D. CoghlanD0001010015:280:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Hill31256.80660:00Loss
C. Hart000–0:00

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. HollowayLW2133120018:401:46
J. SnuggerudRW112100+1017:341:49
R. ThomasC011114+1019:271:48
P. BuchnevichLW1013000017:140:35
J. NeighboursLW011131+1016:381:34
M. McTavishC101200+2014:060:23
J. BerggrenRW0112100013:490:20
C. McMichaelLW0110000013:140:21
A. KaskimakiC011410+1012:380:00
O. StenbergC011021+1011:360:00
D. DvorskyRW000220-1015:050:00
P. SuterC0001010011:500:00
J. BarronD134400+4020:230:00
A. JiricekD011202+2016:200:00
P. BrobergD000302+1022:511:48
C. FowlerD000000-2020:320:21
B. CarloD0000200019:270:00
C. ParaykoD000200-1018:360:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Hofer29272.93160:00Win
J. Binnington000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev18:52J. Eichel16:08M. Stone16:04
Line 2W. Karlsson15:27B. Howden15:29A. Holtz14:04
Line 3T. Hertl14:20T. Connelly13:53B. Bowman14:36
Line 4N. Dowd10:49M. Gatcomb11:56R. Lavoie11:51
Pair 1B. McNabb21:16S. Theodore21:30
Pair 2R. Andersson19:10J. Lauzon17:13
Pair 3N. Hanifin21:09D. Coghlan15:28

STL

Line 1R. Thomas17:39D. Holloway16:54J. Snuggerud15:45
Line 2P. Buchnevich16:39J. Neighbours15:04D. Dvorsky15:05
Line 3J. Berggren13:29C. McMichael12:53M. McTavish13:43
Line 4P. Suter11:50A. Kaskimaki12:38O. Stenberg11:36
Pair 1C. Fowler20:11B. Carlo19:27
Pair 2P. Broberg21:03J. Barron20:23
Pair 3C. Parayko18:36A. Jiricek16:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 19 overs hit (47%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
STL D. Holloway2.5+150-1683Over
VGK J. Eichel2.5-110-1154Over
STL J. Snuggerud2.5+125-1321Under
STL M. McTavish2.5+142-1752Under
VGK T. Hertl2.5+160-1802Under
VGK B. Howden1.5+120-1654Over
STL C. McMichael1.5+106-1250Under
STL C. Parayko1.5+110-1352Over
STL D. Dvorsky1.5+135-1902Over
VGK I. Barbashev1.5+105-1150Under
STL J. Neighbours1.5+140-1551Under
VGK M. Stone1.5-130+1103Over
STL P. Broberg1.5+125-1503Over
STL P. Buchnevich1.5-110-1183Over
VGK R. Andersson1.5-135+1100Under
STL R. Thomas1.5+110-1251Under
VGK S. Theodore1.5-120-1083Over
VGK T. Connelly1.5-120+1000Under
VGK W. Karlsson1.5-148+1251Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreVGK 3.0, STL 3.0VGK 2, STL 6
Total goals6.08
Shots on goalVGK 27.0, STL 25.2VGK 29, STL 31
Win chanceVGK 51%STL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
STL D. Holloway2.530.82327%2
VGK J. Eichel2.440.98127%1
STL J. Snuggerud2.410.76227%1
STL M. McTavish2.220.56121%1
VGK T. Hertl2.120.62024%0
VGK M. Stone1.830.84027%0
VGK T. Connelly1.800.49018%0
VGK S. Theodore1.730.54010%0
VGK R. Andersson1.700.3709%0
STL R. Thomas1.611.00128%0
STL C. McMichael1.600.56121%0
VGK W. Karlsson1.510.46018%0
VGK D. Coghlan1.510.1603%0
STL P. Buchnevich1.530.59122%1
VGK I. Barbashev1.400.55120%0
VGK M. Gatcomb1.420.21012%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.320.29014%0
STL C. Parayko1.320.3108%0
STL J. Neighbours1.310.52121%0
VGK R. Lavoie1.310.1909%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.300.3016%0
VGK B. Howden1.240.41120%1
VGK B. Bowman1.200.39014%0
STL P. Broberg1.230.4108%0
STL J. Berggren1.220.41117%0
STL A. Jiricek1.220.1514%0
STL P. Suter1.110.35016%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.100.1403%0
VGK A. Holtz1.150.25111%0
VGK B. McNabb1.130.2714%0
STL J. Barron1.040.2446%1
STL C. Fowler1.000.4508%0
STL A. Kaskimaki1.040.1618%0
STL O. Stenberg0.900.26111%0
STL B. Carlo0.800.1303%0
VGK N. Dowd0.800.24011%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.