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Game Recap
VGK3
TBL4
TBL beat VGK 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.45. J. Moser led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Kucherov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| TBL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 5:26VGKB. McNabb0.13 xG
- 1st 10:21TBLJ. Moser0.14 xG
- 1st 15:20VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.06 xG
- 1st 19:47TBLN. Kucherov0.15 xG
- 2nd 1:59VGKI. Barbashev0.17 xG
- 3rd 17:38TBLB. Hagel0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:05TBLN. Kucherov0.03 xG
Team Stats
VGKTBL
25Shots on goal25
2.45Expected goals3.96
43Shot attempts71
205v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play0/2
16Hits22
20Blocked shots9
2Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways13
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 2.45 xGTBL 3.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:36 | 4:33 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:13 | 4:54 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 4:19 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:51 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:39 | 4:23 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:21 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:55 |
| B. Brisson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:13 | 4:49 |
| B. McNabb | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:38 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:27 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 58:43 | Loss |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:06 | 2:50 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:17 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:00 | 2:50 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:37 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:35 | 2:50 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:46 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.2, TBL 3.2 | VGK 3, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 28.8, TBL 29.0 | VGK 25, TBL 25 |
| Win chance | TBL 51% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.7 | 1 | 1.09 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.2 | 6 | 1.59 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 3 | 0.96 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 3 | 1.06 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 0 | 0.91 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.9 | 3 | 0.68 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.5 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. Brisson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.9 | 3 | 0.30 | 3 | 6% | 1 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.