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Game Recap
VGK4
UTA2
VGK beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.59 expected goals to 3.74. W. Karlsson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Kesselring had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Hill stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 11:16UTAL. Cooley0.24 xG
- 2nd 6:59UTAM. SergachevPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 13:37VGKT. HertlPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 8:23VGKT. HertlPP0.21 xG
- 3rd 18:42VGKW. Karlsson0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:31VGKW. KarlssonEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
VGKUTA
29Shots on goal32
3.59Expected goals3.74
45Shot attempts77
245v5 shots on goal29
2/3Power play1/4
30Hits12
25Blocked shots8
23Penalty minutes11
11Giveaways13
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 3.59 xGUTA 3.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Karlsson | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:15 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 2:56 |
| T. Hertl | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:51 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 13:50 | 1:59 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 1:36 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 3:03 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:33 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 1:31 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 2:40 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 19:04 | 1:46 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 59:46 | Win |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:50 | 4:12 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:16 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 4:05 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 4:05 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:22 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:23 | 4:07 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:03 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 2:16 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 2:10 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:25 | 4:12 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:04 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:48 | 2:13 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 59:21 | Loss |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.4, UTA 3.0 | VGK 4, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 30.3, UTA 27.7 | VGK 29, UTA 32 |
| Win chance | VGK 57% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 3 | 1.06 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.4 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.0 | 4 | 0.64 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.8 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.6 | 3 | 0.57 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 5 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA M. Lamoureux | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.