Game Recap: VGK 2, VAN 1, April 7, 2026

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Game Recap

VGK2

FinalTue, Apr 7, 2026Every game that night

VAN1

VGK beat VAN 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.79 expected goals to 1.62. VGK outshot VAN 29 to 11. M. Marner had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hart stopped 10 of 11.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	0	1	1	2
VAN	0	1	0	1

2nd 12:50VANM. Sasson0.02 xG
2nd 15:46VGKB. McNabb0.02 xG
3rd 12:13VGKC. Smith0.13 xG

Team Stats

VGKVAN

29Shots on goal11

3.79Expected goals1.62

62Shot attempts43

275v5 shots on goal8

0/1Power play0/2

22Hits27

20Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways9

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 3.79 xGVAN 1.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK27 on goal, 2 scored

VAN11 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:25	0:24
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:55	0:26
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	9:30	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	18:46	0:57
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:58	0:57
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:17	0:38
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:10	0:57
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:05	0:57
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:28	0:39
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	13:22	0:38
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	13:16	0:57
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	12:07	0:25
B. McNabb	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	+2	0	21:23	0:07
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:37	0:56
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:27	0:25
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	22:22	0:37
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	17:35	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	13:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	11	10	1	.909	59:43	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	14:38	0:00
L. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:56	0:17
M. Sasson	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	10:57	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:54	3:13
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	19:59	3:13
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	18:28	3:13
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	18:02	3:13
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:59	1:09
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	16:20	0:28
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	12:16	0:11
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:52	1:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	9:48	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	26:53	3:13
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:18	0:28
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	21:09	0:28
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	19:00	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:09	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
N. Tolopilo	29	27	2	.931	58:19	Loss
J. Patera	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

VGK

Line 1B. Howden15:55P. Dorofeyev16:08J. Eichel15:44

Line 2M. Stone15:01M. Marner16:37I. Barbashev14:34

Line 3T. Hertl12:19C. Sissons12:03B. Saad13:01

Line 4N. Dowd10:30K. Kolesar10:53C. Smith9:12

Pair 1N. Hanifin21:05R. Andersson20:55

Pair 2B. McNabb18:08S. Theodore19:30

Pair 3B. Hutton13:53J. Lauzon14:42

VAN

Line 1E. Pettersson16:59D. O'Connor16:50J. DeBrusk14:52

Line 2L. Ohgren15:28M. Rossi14:49B. Boeser16:06

Line 3T. Blueger13:12M. Sasson10:48L. Karlsson11:24

Line 4N. Hoglander12:03C. Douglas9:40A. Räty10:11

Pair 1F. Hronek22:20Z. Buium20:50

Pair 2T. Willander20:02E. Pettersson15:29

Pair 3M. Pettersson17:22V. Mancini11:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.6, VAN 2.7	VGK 2, VAN 1
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	VGK 29.1, VAN 23.2	VGK 29, VAN 11
Win chance	VGK 63%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.1	3	1.22	0	31%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.8	2	0.79	0	33%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	1	0.51	0	24%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	0	0.71	0	25%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	0	0.70	0	29%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.0	6	1.18	0	28%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	2	1.08	0	29%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.7	1	0.43	0	18%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.7	0	0.47	0	12%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.6	1	0.51	1	20%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.6	1	0.73	0	25%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	0	0.37	0	16%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	1	0.41	0	8%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	2	0.58	0	9%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	1	0.64	1	11%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.64	0	21%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.4	0	0.42	1	13%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.4	2	0.62	0	21%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.2	3	0.30	1	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.28	1	6%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.2	1	0.43	0	18%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.28	0	11%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.1	0	0.26	0	7%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.9	1	0.25	0	12%	0
VAN M. Sasson	0.9	1	0.30	1	16%	1
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	2	0.18	0	4%	0
VAN T. Willander	0.9	0	0.34	0	7%	0
VGK C. Smith	0.9	1	0.18	1	8%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	0.8	0	0.25	0	12%	0
VAN Z. Buium	0.8	0	0.30	0	5%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.30	0	4%	0
VAN C. Douglas	0.8	0	0.09	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.7	1	0.25	0	9%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	2	0.25	1	10%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.6	0	0.14	0	3%	0
VAN V. Mancini	0.6	1	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.