Game Recap: VGK 2, WSH 4, October 15, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

VGK2

FinalTue, Oct 15, 2024Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat VGK 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.63 expected goals to 2.19. A. Ovechkin led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Howden had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. L. Thompson stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	1	1	0	2
WSH	1	3	0	4

1st 6:02WSHJ. Vrana0.20 xG
1st 17:49VGKV. OlofssonPP0.12 xG
2nd 3:06WSHT. WilsonPP0.22 xG
2nd 5:16WSHA. Protas0.23 xG
2nd 6:13WSHJ. Chychrun0.22 xG
2nd 7:17VGKJ. Eichel0.08 xG

Team Stats

VGKWSH

26Shots on goal22

2.19Expected goals3.63

53Shot attempts55

205v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play1/3

9Hits24

15Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes8

7Giveaways13

1Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

VGK 2.19 xGWSH 3.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

VGK25 on goal, 2 scored

WSH22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	20:50	5:25
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:44	6:02
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	20:08	5:52
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:24	5:49
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:46	1:13
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	17:18	1:40
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	15:55	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:58	1:09
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:51	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	9:39	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:36	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:40	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:33	5:35
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	21:07	1:30
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:53	1:10
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-2	0	17:51	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:21	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	2	15:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	22	18	4	.818	57:26	Loss
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	2	2	6	6	0	+1	0	16:55	4:01
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	21:41	3:07
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	17:57	0:12
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:23	3:08
A. Protas	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:12	0:12
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:27	0:53
J. Vrana	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:46	0:12
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	4	15:37	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	15:36	3:11
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	15:30	0:54
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:39	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:53	0:50
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	27:56	3:05
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+3	0	19:37	0:56
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	2	19:56	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:48	0:12
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:05	0:12
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	26	24	2	.923	59:34	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNic Dowd VGK First game back in Washington, his team until Mar 20261 A, 2 SOG
Old teamLogan Thompson WSH Faces VGK, his team until May 202424 saves on 26, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	VGK 3.2, WSH 2.7	VGK 2, WSH 4
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	VGK 29.1, WSH 26.7	VGK 26, WSH 22
Win chance	VGK 58%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	4.1	1	1.12	1	33%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.3	6	0.84	2	35%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.6	0	0.74	1	14%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.4	0	0.90	1	29%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.4	1	0.56	1	25%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.4	2	0.45	1	11%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	0	0.67	0	12%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	3	0.92	2	27%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.1	1	0.66	1	24%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.0	1	0.48	0	9%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	1.9	2	0.46	0	21%	0
WSH J. Vrana	1.9	1	0.42	1	20%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	0	0.49	0	11%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	4	0.40	0	19%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	1	0.54	0	21%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.9	0	0.52	1	21%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.7	1	0.36	1	10%	1
VGK V. Olofsson	1.6	3	0.42	1	20%	1
VGK A. Holtz	1.5	3	0.34	0	16%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.5	1	0.27	0	13%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.62	1	20%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.4	0	0.47	0	16%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.4	0	0.17	0	5%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	0	0.30	0	11%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.3	4	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.2	0	0.28	0	7%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	2	0.27	0	5%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	1.2	1	0.40	0	14%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.1	1	0.21	0	3%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	0	0.35	0	6%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	2	0.36	1	17%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	1	0.15	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	3	0.22	0	7%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.4	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.