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Game Recap
WPG4
PHI1
WPG beat PHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.88 expected goals to 1.87. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Barron had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. E. Comrie stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 8:32WPGM. ScheifelePP0.13 xG
- 1st 15:13WPGN. EhlersPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 5:28WPGK. Connor0.04 xG
- 2nd 9:03WPGA. Lowry0.22 xG
- 3rd 17:18PHIM. Michkov0.10 xG
Team Stats
WPGPHI
27Shots on goal22
2.88Expected goals1.87
58Shot attempts63
245v5 shots on goal19
2/2Power play0/1
6Hits29
22Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways22
5Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WPG 2.88 xGPHI 1.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:28 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:28 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:28 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:28 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| D. Gustafsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 1:28 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 59:50 | Win |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:53 | 1:22 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 1:19 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:07 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:21 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:30 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:13 | 1:03 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:39 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:57 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:31 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:48 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:12 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 60:00 | Loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WPG 3.1, PHI 2.5 | WPG 4, PHI 1 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WPG 25.9, PHI 27.7 | WPG 27, PHI 22 |
| Win chance | WPG 60% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.2 | 2 | 1.12 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.2 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 1 | 1.02 | 3 | 36% | 1 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 2.0 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.9 | 4 | 0.83 | 3 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 0.9 | 6 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. Gustafsson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.6 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.