Game Recap: WSH 5, CBJ 1, October 24, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH5

FinalFri, Oct 24, 2025Every game that night

CBJ1

WSH beat CBJ 5-1, with the chances close: 4.77 expected goals to 4.17. A. Ovechkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). H. Lapierre had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. L. Thompson stopped 34 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	1	4	5
CBJ	0	0	1	1

2nd 18:19WSHJ. Carlson0.05 xG
3rd 1:36WSHA. Ovechkin0.03 xG
3rd 2:40WSHJ. Sourdif0.24 xG
3rd 10:20CBJD. Mateychuk0.23 xG
3rd 15:39WSHT. WilsonPP0.52 xG
3rd 16:37WSHC. McMichaelPP0.50 xG

Team Stats

WSHCBJ

30Shots on goal35

4.77Expected goals4.17

53Shot attempts65

205v5 shots on goal30

2/5Power play0/3

23Hits25

11Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes9

18Giveaways12

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 4.77 xGCBJ 4.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH30 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ34 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+1	0	18:15	7:57
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	14:45	2:38
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	20:29	6:01
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	17:51	2:59
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:33	6:25
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:31	2:35
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	12:18	0:55
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	2	11:37	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	9:52	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:28	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	13:41	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	13:05	0:00
J. Carlson	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	25:43	6:28
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	6	2	0	+1	0	25:19	6:22
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	21:54	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	18:33	0:08
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:16	2:32
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	35	34	1	.971	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:09	4:26
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	2	16:45	4:33
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	2	19:06	4:56
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:29	1:34
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:09	1:27
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	1	4	3	-1	0	14:50	1:30
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:40	4:30
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	5	14:11	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:47	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:28	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:47	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	9:03	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:25	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	24:33	4:49
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	24:16	1:11
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	17:35	1:04
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:24	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	30	25	5	.833	59:37	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1N. Dowd12:45B. Duhaime11:37E. Frank11:00

Line 2T. Wilson10:56H. Lapierre11:34C. McMichael11:42

Line 3A. Ovechkin10:18D. Strome10:48A. Beauvillier12:20

Line 4A. Protas11:05R. Leonard9:56J. Sourdif9:46

Pair 1J. Chychrun18:31M. Roy16:35

Pair 2J. Carlson14:47M. Fehérváry17:47

Pair 3D. Chisholm12:43T. Riemsdyk8:55

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier13:37C. Sillinger12:16C. Coyle10:53

Line 2K. Marchenko12:21D. Voronkov11:42S. Monahan12:01

Line 3B. Jenner10:44A. Fantilli11:37K. Johnson8:45

Line 4Z. Aston-Reese9:57I. Lundestrom11:01E. Chinakhov9:03

Pair 1Z. Werenski18:05D. Mateychuk17:27

Pair 2D. Severson16:08I. Provorov16:18

Pair 3E. Gudbranson10:59D. Fabbro10:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBoone Jenner WSH First game back in Columbus, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.4, CBJ 3.1	WSH 5, CBJ 1
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	WSH 28.9, CBJ 28.5	WSH 30, CBJ 35
Win chance	WSH 54%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.3	3	0.91	2	38%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.1	4	0.73	0	17%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	4	0.72	0	29%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	6	0.57	0	18%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	1	0.56	0	25%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.77	1	30%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	2	0.59	0	25%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.1	0	0.78	1	24%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	3	0.60	2	12%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	4	0.70	1	22%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	2	0.53	2	22%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	0	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	1	0.87	1	26%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	1	0.52	1	22%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	2	0.25	1	14%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	2	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	2	0.60	0	21%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	2	0.38	0	9%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	3	0.34	0	15%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.4	4	0.30	0	13%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.3	2	0.44	0	17%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.3	1	0.19	1	12%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.28	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.35	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	0	0.26	0	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.30	0	7%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.1	1	0.29	1	14%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.33	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.27	1	8%	1
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.0	1	0.18	0	8%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.8	5	0.31	1	10%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.6	1	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.