Game Recap: WSH 0, DAL 1, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH0

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

DAL1

DAL beat WSH 1-0, with the chances close: 2.78 expected goals to 2.75. A. Protas had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Oettinger stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	0	0	0
DAL	0	1	0	1

2nd 0:43DALT. SeguinPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

WSHDAL

24Shots on goal19

2.75Expected goals2.78

61Shot attempts46

215v5 shots on goal11

0/3Power play1/4

22Hits30

14Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways10

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.75 xGDAL 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH24 on goal, 0 scored

DAL19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	2	0	4	21:37	3:56
A. Ovechkin	LW	2	0	0	0	20:33	6:00
P. Dubois	C	2	2	1	0	19:58	2:30
A. Protas	LW	6	1	2	2	19:23	2:04
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	2	0	17:01	3:30
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	2	0	14:58	1:45
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:00
N. Dowd	C	2	1	1	0	13:08	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	2	0	0	0	10:01	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	6	0	2	9:33	0:00
E. Frank	RW	1	1	1	0	8:48	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	1	0	0	8:27	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	4	2	0	0	27:12	4:15
J. Carlson	D	1	0	0	0	25:11	4:38
M. Roy	D	0	3	2	0	21:01	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	2	1	0	19:06	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	2	1	1	0	14:17	1:22
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	1	0	11:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	19	18	1	.947	58:14	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	21:33	5:31
T. Seguin	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:07	4:42
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	22:54	4:50
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	19:33	1:40
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:17	5:31
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:30	1:32
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:57	0:01
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	12:20	0:01
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:15	0:51
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	11:41	0:01
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	8:04	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	23:22	3:51
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	23:38	0:51
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:01	2:31
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	16:52	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	12:55	0:01
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	8	1	2	12:19	0:01
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	24	24	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1P. Dubois15:28A. Protas14:15T. Wilson13:59

Line 2C. McMichael11:26R. Leonard13:12A. Ovechkin12:47

Line 3A. Beauvillier13:25H. Lapierre10:01E. Frank8:48

Line 4N. Dowd8:53J. Sourdif8:27B. Duhaime6:49

Pair 1J. Chychrun20:43M. Roy18:24

Pair 2J. Carlson15:12M. Fehérváry15:33

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk9:13D. Chisholm12:40

DAL

Line 1T. Seguin13:07M. Rantanen15:22S. Steel16:00

Line 2W. Johnston14:50J. Robertson12:38M. Bourque13:18

Line 3R. Faksa12:17N. Bastian8:04A. Erne11:40

Line 4C. Blackwell9:43J. Hryckowian10:17

Pair 1A. Petrovic12:54L. Bichsel11:48

Pair 2E. Lindell15:44M. Heiskanen14:46

Pair 3T. Harley17:45I. Lyubushkin14:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.1, DAL 3.1	WSH 0, DAL 1
Total goals	6.1	1
Shots on goal	WSH 27.6, DAL 26.6	WSH 24, DAL 19
Win chance	DAL 50%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	2	0.87	0	35%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	2	1.08	0	37%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.7	2	1.10	1	36%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	4	0.54	0	17%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.6	1	0.80	0	33%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	2	0.63	1	13%	0
DAL T. Seguin	2.2	2	0.67	1	25%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	1	0.73	0	27%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	1	0.57	0	11%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	6	0.73	0	22%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.8	1	0.33	0	14%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	0	0.49	0	20%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.8	0	0.29	0	13%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	1	0.49	0	13%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	2	0.59	0	20%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.5	1	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.26	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.39	0	12%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.1	0	0.22	0	12%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.28	0	6%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	0	0.28	0	8%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	1	0.23	0	10%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	2	0.32	0	15%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.0	1	0.27	0	12%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.9	2	0.15	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	2	0.31	0	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	0	0.24	0	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.15	0	5%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.8	0	0.15	0	5%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.8	2	0.08	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.7	2	0.18	0	7%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	1	0.15	0	2%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.6	1	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.