Game Recap: WSH 4, NJD 3 (OT), December 27, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH4

Final/OTSat, Dec 27, 2025Every game that night

NJD3

WSH beat NJD 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.09 expected goals to 2.99. A. Protas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Bratt had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. L. Thompson stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WSH	1	1	1	1	4
NJD	0	1	2	0	3

1st 19:59WSHA. Protas0.13 xG
2nd 4:56NJDJ. BrattPP0.38 xG
2nd 17:33WSHA. Beauvillier0.23 xG
3rd 7:00NJDJ. Bratt0.01 xG
3rd 7:32NJDC. Glass0.15 xG
3rd 9:17WSHA. Ovechkin0.12 xG
OT 4:06WSHJ. Chychrun0.32 xG

Team Stats

WSHNJD

33Shots on goal38

5.09Expected goals2.99

55Shot attempts73

275v5 shots on goal34

0/1Power play1/2

14Hits17

21Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes4

9Giveaways15

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 5.09 xGNJD 2.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH32 on goal, 4 scored

NJD38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Protas	LW	1	2	3	5	1	0	+3	0	19:49	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+2	0	15:20	2:00
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	20:49	0:53
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	18:00	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	17:14	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:19	1:07
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:41	0:53
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:56	1:07
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:18	0:53
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:19	1:07
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	8:20	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:54	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	0	22:23	0:53
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+3	0	19:35	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	21:51	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:24	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	20:05	1:07
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	17:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	38	35	3	.921	64:06	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	17:39	1:57
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	24:10	2:00
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:14	0:00
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	2	14:10	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	8:45	1:59
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	22:57	0:11
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	20:57	2:04
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	19:07	0:10
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:35	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:19	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	9:18	0:06
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:06	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:45	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	27:28	2:08
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	24:39	0:13
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	23:09	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:26	0:02
C. White	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	11:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	33	29	4	.879	63:48	OT loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson14:17D. Strome16:50A. Protas16:27

Line 2N. Dowd15:08A. Beauvillier16:39R. Leonard13:41

Line 3A. Ovechkin13:19J. Sourdif15:20C. McMichael15:20

Line 4B. Duhaime8:02H. Lapierre6:36E. Frank8:54

Pair 1T. Riemsdyk17:40R. Sandin18:12

Pair 2J. Chychrun17:18M. Roy20:41

Pair 3J. Carlson15:27M. Fehérváry17:49

NJD

Line 1T. Meier20:10N. Hischier18:41D. Mercer17:13

Line 2C. Brown16:08C. Glass14:09A. Gritsyuk13:44

Line 3J. Bratt13:11J. Hughes15:40O. Palat9:09

Line 4S. Noesen6:46L. Glendening6:58P. Cotter8:37

Pair 1B. Pesce20:46L. Hughes21:10

Pair 2J. Siegenthaler18:57D. Hamilton20:49

Pair 3B. Dillon13:40C. White11:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.0, NJD 2.8	WSH 4, NJD 3
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	WSH 27.4, NJD 28.7	WSH 33, NJD 38
Win chance	WSH 52%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	3	1.13	0	37%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.3	2	0.73	0	31%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	5	0.59	1	18%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.9	3	0.83	2	36%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	4	0.50	0	14%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	2	0.84	1	30%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.4	3	0.49	0	18%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	6	0.88	2	24%	2
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	0	0.74	0	30%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.0	3	0.59	0	10%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	3	0.37	1	16%	1
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	3	0.46	0	15%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	0	0.58	0	10%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	1	0.54	0	21%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	4	0.49	0	22%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	5	0.62	3	22%	1
NJD C. Glass	1.8	3	0.38	1	16%	1
NJD C. Brown	1.8	1	0.50	1	19%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	3	0.79	1	25%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	1	0.40	1	17%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.5	2	0.34	0	15%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.4	0	0.45	0	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.38	0	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	3	0.30	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.28	0	14%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.30	1	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	2	0.28	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.29	1	14%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.14	0	3%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	2	0.17	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.22	1	5%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	0	0.21	0	6%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.10	0	6%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	3	0.15	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.