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Game Recap
WSH3
Final/OTTue, Nov 10, 2026Every game that night
OTT2

WSH beat OTT 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.85 expected goals to 2.78. OTT outshot WSH 26 to 17. C. Hutson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Sanderson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Thompson stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
WSH10113
OTT02002
  1. 1st 0:35WSHM. Roy0.03 xG
  2. 2nd 11:05OTTR. Greig0.12 xG
  3. 2nd 16:04OTTH. Hodgson0.18 xG
  4. 3rd 12:31WSHP. Dubois0.12 xG
  5. OT 1:14WSHC. Hutson0.04 xG

Team Stats

WSHOTT
17Shots on goal26
1.85Expected goals2.78
40Shot attempts70
155v5 shots on goal22
0/4Power play0/3
27Hits19
25Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes8
22Giveaways11
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 1.85 xGOTT 2.78 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTWSH goal, 0:35OTT goal, 11:05OTT goal, 16:04WSH goal, 12:31WSH goal, 1:14

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH17 on goal, 3 scored
OTT26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. WilsonRW011032+1020:123:10
D. StromeC011000-1018:435:27
P. DuboisC101110+2017:354:18
A. ProtasLW011111+1015:330:00
A. OvechkinLW011030+1013:194:10
A. TuchRW0000110019:114:40
B. JennerC000122-1015:570:00
R. LeonardRW0002210214:524:15
J. KyrouRW0000000013:172:40
A. BeauvillierRW0001000012:480:00
J. SourdifC0001300212:060:00
I. ProtasLW000000-1010:502:10
C. HutsonD112322+2021:475:17
J. ChychrunD011223+1222:392:43
M. RoyD1013430021:240:08
M. FehérváryD0000150019:010:00
T. LiljegrenD000003-1015:340:00
J. St. IvanyD0002220014:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson26242.92361:14Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. GreigC1012100017:000:01
M. AmadioRW011000+1015:320:00
S. HallidayC011110+129:131:38
H. HodgsonRW101110+106:350:00
T. StützleC0001110022:084:18
S. PintoC000240-3021:071:22
D. CozensC0003110018:564:21
C. GirouxRW0002100016:334:15
D. BathersonRW000120-1016:064:22
F. ZetterlundLW000030-1215:171:35
N. CousinsC000021-1212:120:00
P. TomasinoRW000200+108:521:29
T. ChabotD022101+2021:031:55
J. SandersonD000502-3223:374:22
A. ZubD000001-3020:070:00
J. SpenceD000100+2018:250:22
N. MatinpaloD0002110017:130:00
T. KlevenD0002110017:000:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Ersson17143.82461:14OT loss
J. Parsons000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1A. Protas13:55P. Dubois13:17A. Tuch12:43
Line 2D. Strome13:05J. Kyrou10:37R. Leonard10:37
Line 3A. Ovechkin8:57A. Beauvillier12:48J. Sourdif11:36
Line 4I. Protas8:40B. Jenner11:38T. Wilson13:07
Pair 1M. Roy16:59J. Chychrun18:41
Pair 2C. Hutson16:18J. Ivany13:38
Pair 3M. Fehérváry14:42T. Liljegren13:52

OTT

Line 1D. Cozens14:35T. Stützle15:57F. Zetterlund13:30
Line 2M. Amadio12:39R. Greig12:36C. Giroux12:13
Line 3D. Batherson11:44S. Pinto13:54N. Cousins12:12
Line 4P. Tomasino7:23S. Halliday7:35H. Hodgson6:35
Pair 1T. Chabot18:18J. Spence17:24
Pair 2N. Matinpalo15:32T. Kleven14:39
Pair 3J. Sanderson14:12A. Zub14:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5+130-1550Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5+125-1450Under
OTT D. Batherson2.5+135-1551Under
OTT D. Cozens2.5+110-1353Over
WSH J. Chychrun2.5+110-1202Under
OTT S. Pinto2.5+140-1702Under
OTT T. Stützle2.5+145-1701Under
WSH A. Protas1.5+115-1251Under
OTT C. Giroux1.5-120+1002Over
WSH C. Hutson1.5+105-1153Over
WSH D. Strome1.5-115+1100Under
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5-155+1440Under
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-150+1350Under
OTT J. Sanderson1.5-170+1365Over
WSH P. Dubois1.5+110-1401Under
OTT R. Greig1.5-108-1202Over
WSH R. Leonard1.5-190+1582Over
OTT T. Chabot1.5-115-1101Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-130+1050Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWSH 3.4, OTT 3.2WSH 3, OTT 2
Total goals6.65
Shots on goalWSH 25.3, OTT 28.3WSH 17, OTT 26
Win chanceWSH 53%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WSH A. Tuch2.600.88035%0
OTT T. Stützle2.511.09032%0
OTT D. Cozens2.430.71026%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.320.66120%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.300.71131%0
WSH J. Kyrou2.300.80031%0
OTT D. Batherson2.210.88030%0
OTT S. Pinto2.120.68028%0
OTT F. Zetterlund2.000.45019%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.050.69013%0
WSH R. Leonard1.920.57022%0
WSH B. Jenner1.810.51023%0
OTT C. Giroux1.820.66020%0
OTT T. Chabot1.710.52212%0
WSH D. Strome1.700.83126%0
OTT R. Greig1.720.49119%1
WSH A. Protas1.510.61122%0
WSH T. Wilson1.500.61125%0
WSH C. Hutson1.530.53216%1
OTT S. Halliday1.510.42117%0
WSH P. Dubois1.410.65120%1
OTT M. Amadio1.300.47120%0
OTT J. Spence1.210.3508%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.210.43018%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.210.29014%0
OTT T. Kleven1.220.2205%0
WSH M. Roy1.030.2915%1
OTT N. Cousins1.000.26010%0
OTT A. Zub1.000.2904%0
WSH I. Protas0.900.37011%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.820.1303%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.700.3306%0
WSH T. Liljegren0.700.1804%0
WSH J. Ivany0.620.2203%0
OTT H. Hodgson0.510.1015%1

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.